Earnings season is the heartbeat of the market - and every day brings fresh signals about where money is flowing.
With each report, we learn not just how companies are performing, but how investors are reacting.
In the Daily Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings moves from the prior session - the winners, the losers, and the reactions that reveal what really matters to the market right now.
Whether itβs a bellwether with broad economic implications or a niche name making waves, we cut through the noise to focus on the setups that matter most.
Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500 π
*Click the image to enlarge it
After beating headline expectations, one of the largest integrated freight & logistics stocks, FedEx $FDX, had a +0.95 reaction score.
The company posted revenues of $22.20B, versus the expected $21.65B, and earnings per share of $3.83, versus the expected $3.61.
Following a mixed report, the $33B residential construction giant, Lennar $LEN, had a -2.15 reaction score.
Their report showed revenues of $8.81B, versus the expected $8.97B, and earnings per share of $2.29, versus the expected $2.10.
Now let's dive into the fundamentals and technicals π
FDX snapped a 4 quarter beatdown streak π₯
FedEx had a +2.7% post-earnings reaction, and here's what happened:
Over the past year, revenue and operating income have increased by 3% and 7%, respectively.
They remain on track to spin-off FedEx Freight in June 2026. We think the market will love this move. Look at what happened to General Electric after it split into three separate companies.
In addition to the strong quarter, the management team also issued solid guidance for the next fiscal year, including $1B in cost savings from the company's restructuring.
We wrote about this stock in a recent column of the Weekly Beat, highlighting the bearish fundamental and technical trends. This positive earnings reaction came as a big surprise to us because nothing significant has changed fundamentally.
Does the market know something we don't? Perhaps it's looking ahead to the spin-off next year?
If the price can scoop-n-score above the key level of interest we've highlighted on the chart above, the squeeze will be on, and a quick move higher would likely follow.
So long as FDX holds below 235, our bias will remain sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. A decisive close above that level would shift our bias to the upside.
LEN suffered its 8th consecutive negative earnings reaction π»
Lennar suffered a decline of -2.1% following this earnings report, and here's what happened:
Homebuilding revenues declined 9% year-over-year, primarily due to a decrease in sales prices.
The housing market this company serves is experiencing significant weakening, as evidenced by the 17.5% year-over-year decline in gross margin.
In addition to the woeful quarter, the management team decreased its forward guidance for home deliveries.
Despite a broad rally in the residential construction industry, this stock has remained in a firm technical and fundamental bear market. Moreover, Mr. Market has punished the shareholders with one of the longest beatdown streaks in the entire S&P 500.
Many areas of the housing market are thriving, but this company doesn't have exposure to them. They are doing everything wrong.
After a nearly 50% decline from the all-time high peak last year to the spring 2025 low, the price has stopped falling and is in a sideways consolidation. We expect this to continue until there's a catalyst for the price to breakout, which we don't anticipate will happen anytime soon.
So long as LEN is below 144, the path of least resistance is likely to remain sideways to lower for the foreseeable future. An authoritative close above that level would mark the resolution of a prolonged bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern and the beginning of a new bull market.
Happy fishing
-The Beat Team
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