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The Strazza Letter

Housing & Friends

July 2, 2025

Stock markets all over the world are parading to fresh highs. From Europe to Asia, the world’s major benchmarks sit at – or within a stone’s throw of – all-time or cycle highs.

Stateside, the Nasdaq 100 printed a new all-time high, and the S&P 500 followed a few days after. 

Leadership groups are breaking out in unison. Down the risk curve, speculative growth is screaming and semis are back in the driver’s seat. 

One bull flag after another keeps resolving higher. 

And most importantly for today's note— the laggards keep catching up to the leaders.

But there’s one group that just hasn't shown up yet… and quite frankly, the bull market can’t rage on without them. I’m talking about a group of stocks SO important, they literally have to join the party. Otherwise, it throws a wrench in the entire bullish thesis.

It’s Homebuilders.

...

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (07-02-2025)

July 2, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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[Options Premium] Bull Market Patterns

July 2, 2025

 

Today's trade follows a similar pattern of late --  High, tight consolidations continue to break out.

I've got another one here that is setting up for a breakout and I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get positioned at advantageous prices.

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/2/25

July 2, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLB position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The Strazza Letter

Buying the Three B's

July 1, 2025

You have probably heard me talk about the Three B’s before.

It stands for banks, biotechs, and builders, and is a fun and convenient acronym I use when discussing the most interest rate-sensitive stocks.

These groups could not be more different, but they share a key similarity in the sense that they all move in synchrony with the bond market.

Biotechs are some of the longest-duration equities, so lower rates boost their valuations. It also allows these chronic cash-burners to access capital cheaply.

Builders sell houses, and lower rates are the key demand driver, so that one is obvious.

And banks are new to the lower rates list. 

We used to say banks want higher rates, or a higher spread—it’s how they make money. However, that changed recently as asset-liability matching issues arose from lending operations during the last rate-...

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The Short Report (07-01-2025)

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via...

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This Chart Just Changed Everything

July 1, 2025

Copper just made history.

The price closed June with its highest monthly close ever.

We have the data:

 

Copper futures are printing fresh all-time highs after resolving a prolonged accumulation pattern.

And when copper moves, it isn’t just about metals—it’s about yields, growth, and what comes next.

Next up is a chart of the Copper/Gold ratio versus the 10-year yield

Forget the recent noise, for decades, long-term yields have followed the Copper/Gold ratio. 

When Dr. Copper outperforms, yields rise. 

Every time.

Why? Because copper is associated with construction, production, and demand. 

It’s the heartbeat of the real global economy. 

Gold is fear. Copper is action.

When Copper leads, the market’s not bracing for collapse. Instead, it’s pricing in growth.

This is one of the biggest divergences we've ever seen:

 

In recent years, the Copper/Gold ratio and the 10Y yield have carved out one of the largest divergences in history.

And now we're seeing early signals that the ratio is going to reverse higher...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/1/25

July 1, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in EFA.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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[Gold Rush] Fresh Quarterly Highs Signal New Bull Cycle 📈

June 30, 2025

It has been a blockbuster year for precious metals, and the latest monthly and quarterly closes reiterated it.

The entire precious metals complex is breaking out of long-term bases. 

These patterns are the classic signature of new secular bull markets. 

Gold rang the bell first, but now its peers are joining the charge.

Let’s dive into what the data is showing us.

Here's the 2025 scoreboard 👇
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Trading Without a Manual

June 30, 2025

I had a thought this morning while considering a few trades:

Maybe part of why I still struggle at trading sometimes is because there’s a part of me that really, really wants to follow an instruction manual to be successful.

In other areas of my life, that mindset serves me well.

I don’t know how to cook—but give me step-by-step directions, and I thrive. When we used to get HelloFresh boxes delivered, I crushed those meals. I followed the instructions, made something delicious and useful for my family, and felt like a total champ.

Following the instructions = success. I like that. I crave that.

But trading isn’t like that.

I can lay out a well-thought-out plan—how to select the trade, how to size it, how to manage it—and still lose money.

The market doesn’t care that I followed the recipe.

There’s no gold star just for executing cleanly.

And yeah, I know a successful outcome in trading is supposed to mean I followed my plan with discipline. I know.

But that doesn’t make a loss feel any better. Which leads to the uncomfortable question I’ve been sitting with:

If I only thrive when I have a proven...

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The Minor Leaguers (06-30-2025)

June 30, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...