Earnings are the heartbeat of the market - and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks. With each report, we get new information about corporate health, investor sentiment, and the sectors driving leadership (or lagging).
In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week - the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets. Then we shift our focus forward, breaking down the biggest setups and expectations for the week ahead.
Whether itโs mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, weโve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.
The best earnings reaction came from American Express $AXP, the world's third-largest credit services stock. The company reported a double beat and rallied by more than 7% to a new all-time high.
The worst earnings reaction came from the $30B capital markets stock, Interactive Brokers $IBKR. They beat expectations across the board, but suffered a -3.3% reaction.
There were no S&P 500 earnings reactions on Monday, but we want to tell you about one of the hottest stocks in the world that you probably haven't heard of. Its name is FTAI Aviation $FTAI
Last quarter, the stock had its best earnings reaction ever on the heels of a blockbuster earnings report. FTAI is expected to report earnings after Monday's closing bell, and based on the recent price action, we're expecting another historic report and reaction.
The best earnings reaction came from General Motors $GM, one of the world's largest auto manufacturers. The company reported a double beat and rallied nearly 15% to resolve a massive base decisively.
The worst earnings reaction came from the tobacco behemoth Philip Morris $PM, which reported a double beat, but suffered a -3.8% earnings reaction. The price is now on the cusp of resolving a prolonged distribution pattern.
The best earnings reaction came from the world's largest medical instruments and supplies stock, Intuitive Surgical $ISRG. They beat expectations across the board and rallied +13.9% in response to the news.
Following a mixed earnings report, Netflix $NFLX had the worst earnings reaction as it fell -10.1%. This was the stock's worst earnings reaction since 2022.
Tesla $TSLA reported mixed results and initially reacted with a -5% drop. However, the buyers quickly stepped in, sparking a massive intraday rally.
After a mixed earnings report, Molina Healthcare $MOH fell more than -17%. This was the fourth consecutive negative earnings reaction and the worst since 2017.
What's happening next week ๐
Next week, we'll hear from some of the largest corporations in the world. There will be a ton to unpack at the Beat Report.
At the top of our radar will be Microsoft $MSFT, Alphabet $GOOGL, and Apple $AAPL.
We'll also be watching:
The mega-cap tech stocks, Meta Platforms $META and Amazon $AMZN.
The healthcare giants, Eli Lilly $LLY, Merck $MRK, and UnitedHealth $UNH.
The industrial bellwether, Caterpillar $CAT.
The energy behemoths, Exxon Mobil $XOM and Chevron $CVX.
And the crypto stocks, Coinbase $COIN and Strategy $MSTR.
It'll be one of the most action-packed weeks of the quarter at the Beat Report, so make sure you don't miss a beat.
Now, letโs dive into the top setups heading into next week.
Here's the setup in MSFT ahead of Wednesday's earnings report ๐
Microsoft is expected to post $75.38B in revenue and EPS of $3.67 after Wednesday's closing bell.
The stock broke out of a massive base earlier this year and reached a $4T market capitalization for the first time. Since peaking at the end of July, the price has been coiling and building up energy for its next leg higher.
We believe this quarter's earnings report will likely be the catalyst that the buyers have been waiting for.
Additionally, the price is approaching the apex of a textbook multi-month consolidation pattern. Whichever way it breaks will set the tone for the foreseeable future.
If MSFT delivers what the market's looking for, we expect the shareholders to be rewarded with a fresh leg higher to new all-time highs.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for MSFT ๐
Over the past three years, Microsoft has consistently delivered better-than-expected top and bottom-line results. Their headline numbers have also consistently grown by double-digits, which is incredibly impressive for a company of its size.
It's not all roses, though... Despite the company beating its headline expectations every quarter, the market has punished shareholders for about half of its earnings events over the past three years.
In other words, the company doesn't always give the market what it wants.
However, the last two earnings reports have resulted in strong reactions.
We're expecting MSFT to extend its beat streak to three quarters on Thursday.
Here's the setup in GOOGL ahead of Wednesday's earnings report ๐
Alphabet is expected to report $99.95B in revenue and EPS of $2.27 after Wednesday's closing bell.
As you can see, the stock has been in a strong uptrend since bottoming in April, rallying over 80%.
Over the past month, the price has carved out a textbook continuation pattern, which was decisively resolved on Friday. In other words, the market is front-running a good earnings report.
So long as GOOGL sticks this breakout to new all-time highs, the path of least resistance will likely remain higher for the foreseeable future.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for GOOGL ๐
Like MSFT, Alphabet has consistently beaten its headline expectations over the past three years, yet its earnings reactions have been mixed.
The top line is consistently growing in the low double digits, and the bottom line is increasing between 20% and 60%.
One of our favorite business podcasts, Acquired, recently published a four-hour deep-dive into Google: The AI Company. If you haven't listened to it, we cannot recommend it highly enough.
The company is one of the most well-positioned in the world to win the AI race, and it's clear the market agrees with this view right now.
We're expecting GOOGL to extend its beat streak to three quarters on Thursday.
Here's the setup in AAPL ahead of Thursday's earnings report ๐
The market expects Apple to report $102.07B in revenue and EPS of $1.77 after Thursday's closing bell.
For all of 2025, the stock has been carving out a massive accumulation pattern. Last week, the buyers put the finishing touches on this base and closed the price at a new all-time high.
Because earnings reactions tend to occur in the same direction as the short-term trend, we expect the stock to react positively to its earnings report next week.
So long as AAPL holds above 260, the path of least resistance is likely to remain higher for the foreseeable future.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for AAPL ๐
Apple almost always beats its headline expectations, but the market usually punishes shareholders for it. We believe this is due primarily to underwhelming revenue and earnings growth metrics relative to the company's valuation.
The stock has been punished for four consecutive earnings reports, but, as we previously discussed, we expect this beatdown streak to end next week.
If APPL delivers what the market wants next week, we expect a positive earnings reaction.
Happy Sunday
-The Beat Team
P.S. Sean just nailed his biggest trade of the year - and youโll never guess what he did to pull it off.
He broke it all down in last week's Options Jam Sessionโฆ
