Earnings are the heartbeat of the market - and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks. With each report, we get new information about corporate health, investor sentiment, and the sectors driving leadership (or lagging).
In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week - the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets. Then we shift our focus forward, breaking down the biggest setups and expectations for the week ahead.
Whether it’s mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we’ve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.
Ford Motor $F beat expectations across the board and rallied more than 12% in response. This was the stock's best earnings reaction of the 21st century.
Following a double beat, Deckers Outdoor $DECK cratered 15% to a new 52-week low. This earnings reaction was the decisive resolution of a prolonged distribution pattern.
Keurig Dr. Pepper $KDP, one of the world's largest providers of non-alcoholic beverages, beat its headline expectations and rallied 7.6% as a result. Not only was this the stock's best earnings reaction ever, but it also repaired the damage of what was previously a top.
The $11B diagnostic and research stock, Revvity $RVTY, had a mixed earnings report and suffered its second consecutive negative earnings reaction. Price is hanging on for dear life at the lower bound of a massive distribution pattern.
The $68B biopharma behemoth, Regeneron $REGN, had better-than-expected earnings results and rallied nearly 12%. This was the stock's best earnings reaction since 2012, and the decisive resolution of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
The $11B REIT, Alexandria Real Estate $ARE, missed expectations across the board, resulting in the stock's worst earnings reaction ever. The stock has fallen by more than 70% from its all-time high in late 2021, and it's now at a significant level of former support from over a decade ago.
The $275B industrial bellwether, Caterpillar $CAT, smashed the market's expectations and was rewarded with its best earnings reaction of the 21st century. With the price trading at fresh all-time highs, the path of least resistance is decisively higher for the foreseeable future.
Following a double miss, Fiserv $FI had its worst earnings reaction ever as the stock crashed 44% in a single session. After years of riding a secular uptrend, the stock is now on the cusp of resolving a massive top.
The $3.4T tech behemoth, Alphabet $GOOGL, crushed its headline expectations and rallied for its third consecutive positive earnings reaction. The company saw double-digit growth across Google Search, YouTube, subscriptions, and Google Cloud. Additionally, the Google Cloud backlog reached $155B, and paid subscriptions surpassed 300M.
The world's largest software stock, Microsoft $MSFT, was punished for beating expectations. Shareholders have now been punished for 4 of the company's last 6 earnings events.
What's happening next week 👇
Next week will be an action-packed week for earnings events. There will be a ton to unpack at the Beat Report.
At the top of our radar will be Palantir $PLTR, Advanced Micro Devices $AMD, and NRG Energy $NRG.
We'll also be watching:
The food delivery competitors Uber $UBER and Doordash $DASH
The fintech darling, Robinhood $HOOD.
Up-and-coming healthcare stocks like Hims and Hers Health $HIMS and Oscar Health $OSCR.
Canada's largest tech stock, Shopify $SHOP.
And the red-hot uranium stock, Cameco $CCJ.
This is just the tip of the iceberg... There's so much more than that, so make sure you don't miss a beat.
Now, let’s dive into the top setups heading into next week.
Here's the setup in PLTR ahead of Monday's earnings report 👇
Palantir is expected to post $1.09B in revenue and EPS of $0.17 after Monday's closing bell.
Since bottoming in 2022, the stock has been in one of the strongest primary uptrends in the entire market. Over that time, it has earned one of the largest market capitalizations in the world.
Despite sky-high growth expectations, this company has delivered, quarter after quarter.
And ahead of this week's earnings report, the stock is decisively breaking out to new all-time highs. In other words, investors are expecting another good report.
If PLTR delivers what the market's looking for, we expect the shareholders to be rewarded with a fresh leg higher toward the next Fibonacci extension level.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for PLTR 👇
Over the past three years, Palantir has consistently delivered better-than-expected top and bottom-line results. Not only that, but the growth has been astronomical.
Because of the strong fundamental performance, the market almost always rewards shareholders for the earnings events. And when it rallies after earnings, we see massive moves like +10%, +20% or even +30%.
Barring some unexpected news, we expect PLTR to rally after its earnings report this week.
Here's the setup in AMD ahead of Tuesday's earnings report 👇
Advanced Micro Devices is expected to report $8.76B in revenue and EPS of $1.17 after Tuesday's closing bell.
Since the April low earlier this year, this has been one of the strongest names in the market, rallying nearly 250%. With the price trading near all-time highs and the momentum firmly in a bullish regime, it's hard to bet against this name.
So long as AMD holds this breakout to new all-time highs, the path of least resistance will likely remain higher for the foreseeable future.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for AMD 👇
For years, Advanced Micro Devices has had a flawless track record of beating the headline expectations. Despite this, the market almost always punishes shareholders for the earnings events.
In other words, this company rarely gives the market what it wants.
Heading into this week's report, the stock is on a four-quarter beatdown streak. While it's possible we see this snapped, it's not the bet we want to make.
We're expecting AMD to extend its beatdown streak to five quarters next week.
Here's the setup in NRG ahead of Thursday's earnings report 👇
The market expects NRG Energy to report $7.46B in revenue and EPS of $1.99 after Thursday's closing bell.
In late 2023, the stock put the finishing touches on a massive multi-decade accumulation pattern.
The reaction? A rip-roaring 500% in a few years.
And remember, this is a utility stock. It's not a speculative tech stock...
The stock's relative strength is off the charts, which supports higher prices in absolute terms.
If and when NRG breaks above the 423.6% extension, the path of least resistance will shift higher toward the 685.4% level.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for NRG 👇
While NRG Energy's track record of beating the market's expectations is far from perfect, its earnings reaction in May of this year was. In May, the stock had its best earnings reaction ever.
Then in August, the company failed to deliver and had its worst earnings reaction ever.
The extreme volatility in earnings reactions we've seen this year makes it difficult to tell if the bulls or bears are winning. That's why this week's earnings event will be key. We'll have a much better understanding of which direction the fundamentals are leaning.
Whether up or down, we expect NRG's earnings reaction to be big this week.
Happy Sunday
-The Beat Team
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