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The Weekly Beat πŸ“ˆ

Earnings are the heartbeat of the market - and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks. With each report, we get new information about corporate health, investor sentiment, and the sectors driving leadership (or lagging).

In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week - the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets. Then we shift our focus forward, breaking down the biggest setups and expectations for the week ahead.

Whether it’s mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we’ve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.

What happened last week πŸ‘‡

  • Monday:
    • The $180B semiconductor equipment & materials stock, Applied Materials $AMAT, rallied over 1% following a double beat.
    • AMAT's positive earnings reaction snapped a streak of six consecutive negative earnings reactions.
  • Tuesday:
    • There were no S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we wrote about one of our favorite turnaround stories in the market: SolarEdge $SEDG.
    • Following a nasty multi-year drawdown, SEDG is in the early stages of a brand-new primary uptrend. Additionally, the company is again free cash flow positive, and on November 5, the stock posted its best earnings reaction ever.
  • Wednesday:
    • The medical devices giant, Medtronic $MEDT, had its best earnings reaction since 2018 after crushing headline expectations.
    • Following a mixed earnings report, Home Depot $HD cratered 6% for its worst earnings reaction since 2002.
  • Thursday:
    • HD's largest competitor, Lowe's $LOW, also had a mixed earnings report, but the earnings reaction was the opposite. The stock rallied 4% for its best earnings reaction since 2021.
    • Following a mixed earnings report, Mr. Market punished Target $TGT for the fifth consecutive quarter.
  • Friday:
    • The world's largest retailer, Walmart $WMT, rallied 6.5% after posting a double beat. This snapped a streak of three consecutive negative earnings reactions.
    • Following a blockbuster earnings report, the world's largest semiconductor stock, Nvidia $NVDA, fell by over 3%.

What's happening next week πŸ‘‡

Next week will be on the slower side because of the holiday, but there will still be plenty to cover at The Beat Report.

At the top of our radar will be Deere & Co. $DE and Dell $DELL.

We'll also be watching:

  • The former market darling, Zoom $ZM.
  • The up-and-coming robotics name, Symbotic $SYM.
  • Retailers such as Dicks Sporting Goods $DKS, Abercrombie & Fitch $ANF, and Burlington Stores $BURL.
  • The Chinese automobile stocks Nio $NIO, Pony AI $PONY, and Li Auto $LI.
  • And a handful of tech stocks like Zscaler $ZS, Workday $WDAY, HP $HPQ, and Netapp $NTAP.

It'll be a lot of tech, China, and retail.   

Now, let’s dive into the top setups heading into next week.

Here's the setup in DE ahead of Wednesday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

Deere & Co. is expected to post $9.83B in revenue and EPS of $3.84 before Wednesday's opening bell.

After carving out a massive base, the stock broke out to new all-time highs earlier this year. However, the buyers failed to follow through to the upside, and the sellers drove the price back down to the breakout level. 

Now the price is on the cusp of making another run at all-time highs. The final boss is the volume-weighted average price, anchored to the all-time high. A move above this level would decisively shift the path of least resistance higher toward new all-time highs.

Heading into Wednesday's earnings report, all eyes are on 490.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for DE πŸ‘‡

For seven consecutive quarters, the company has reported negative top and bottom-line growth. Despite this, we've seen mixed earnings reactions: some have been really good and others have been terrible.

Additionally, the stock has experienced negative post-earnings drift after five of the last six reports. This reinforces the range-bound price action we're seeing in the chart.

Because last quarter was the stock's worst earnings reaction in years, we don't have high expectations for this quarter. And based on the consensus revenue and earnings expectations, neither does the market.

With the bar set low, it won't take much for DE to have a positive earnings reaction on Wednesday. 

Here's the setup in DELL ahead of Tuesday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

Dell is expected to report $27.34B in revenue and EPS of $2.45 after Tuesday's closing bell.

Since hitting last year's peak, sellers have stepped in, driving the price back to the mid-range of a massive base.

And while the stock looks vulnerable to further short-term downside, the chart's structure remains bullish. It's a textbook accumulation pattern after a massive uptrend.

If DELL can hold above the September low, we expect a bounce back toward 168. If that level fails to hold, a retest of 100 is likely not far away.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for DELL πŸ‘‡

Last year, Dell peaked on the heels of its worst earnings reaction ever. Since then, the company has continued to deliver strong top and bottom-line growth, but shareholders have been punished for four consecutive earnings reports.

This is a textbook divergence between Street Beats & Market Beats. In other words, the company is delivering good fundamental news, but the market isn't buying it.

Based on DELL's recent track record, we expect another negative earnings reaction next week.

Happy Fibonacci day 

-The Beat Team


P.S. Retail earnings can create some of the fastest moves of the quarter, especially when expectations are off. Macke will highlight the stocks where that disconnect is biggest right now.

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