Earnings are the heartbeat of the market, and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks.
With each report, we get new information on corporate health, investor sentiment, and where money is rotating.
In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week: the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets.
Then we shift our focus to the week ahead, breaking down the technicals and fundamentals.
Whether it’s mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we’ve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.
Despite missing top- and bottom-line expectations, Coinbase $COIN rallied 16.5% for its best earnings reaction since Q2 2023. The company launched the Everything Exchange, expanding into equities, prediction markets, and commodities. This is seeing early success and record trading volumes.
Following a big double beat, Expedia $EXPE fell 6.4% and snapped a 2-quarter beat streak. While it was a good quarter, the management team's forward guidance was weaker-than-expected.
After missing expectations across the board, Builders FirstSource $BLDR suffered its fourth negative earnings reaction in the last five quarters. Sales fell 12% year-over-year, and earnings per share tanked 52% over the same period.
In reaction to a double miss, Genuine Parts $GPC suffered a beatdown of -14.6%, and snapped a 3-quarter beat streak. The company completed the termination of a U.S. pension plan and incurred a $742M noncash settlement charge. This led to a massive bottom-line miss.
Following a massive double beat, Global Payments $GPN rallied 16.5% for its best earnings reaction since 2008. The company completed the acquisition of Worldpay nearly 6 months sooner than anticipated. This purchase positions the company as a pure-play merchant solutions provider.
The world's largest cybersecurity stock, Palo Alto Networks $PANW beat the market's expectations, but fell nearly 7%. The company closed major acquisitions of Chronosphere and CyberArk, expanding observability and identity security platforms. These acquisitions are massively diluting shareholders and will therefore cause a steep drop in earnings per share.
In reaction to a mixed earnings report, Omnicom $OMC soared 15.4% for its best earnings reaction of the 21st century. This was the company's first earnings report since acquiring IPG, which formed the world's largest marketing and sales company. The single biggest surprise was the upward revision to merger synergy expectations. They now expect annual run-rate synergies of $1.5B over the next 30 months.
Despite beating its headline expectations, EPAM Systems $EPAM cratered 17%, snapping a 3-quarter beat streak. After previously stating that revenue growth would accelerate in 2026, the management team guided to slower growth this year than last.
What's happening next week 👇
Next week will be action-packed again, with our attention focused on the semiconductor and consumer bellwethers Nvidia $NVDA, Home Depot $HD, and Lowe's $LOW.
We'll also be watching:
The software giants, Salesforce $CRM, Workday $WDAY, Snowflake $SNOW, and more.
The Bitcoin miners, MARA $MARA and Hut 8 $HUT.
The secular leader in apparel retail, TJX Companies $TJX.
The quantum computing scams, IonQ $IONQ and D-Wave Quantum $QBTS.
And more!
There will be plenty of earnings reactions to unpack next week in the Daily Beat. Stay tuned...
Now, let's talk about the reports that are front and center for us next week.
Next week’s most important earnings report comes from the world’s largest company, Nvidia $NVDA, which is expected to report on Wednesday after the close. The Street is looking for revenues of $65.71B and earnings per share of $1.52.
Heading into the report, NVDA is stuck in no man’s land.
After rallying nearly 150% last year, the price action has been quiet and low-volatility for months as the stock carves out a potential distribution pattern.
This is a key battleground level.
The bears are looking for a breakdown, while the bulls are attempting to defend the range and set the stage for the next leg higher.
This earnings event will likely determine which side wins.
Looking at the earnings scorecard, Nvidia has been punished for two consecutive earnings reports and three of the last four, despite continuing to crush headline expectations.
In fact, last quarter the company grew revenue and EPS by more than 60% year-over-year.
That’s absurd for any company… let alone the world's largest company.
Growth has decelerated from prior triple-digit rates, but it remains incredibly strong.
Still, the recent negative pre- and post-earnings drift suggests sentiment is shifting.
Management now needs to prove that this level of growth is sustainable.
With NVDA sitting in the middle of a massive range, next week’s report could spark the next major trend move, higher or lower.
We’re also watching the home improvement retail bellwethers Home Depot $HD and Lowe’s $LOW.
Home Depot reports Tuesday before the open, with expectations for $38.12B in revenue and $2.53 in earnings per share.
Technically, HD is a mess.
The stock remains stuck in a wide, choppy range with no clear trend, a big, sloppy consolidation that has persisted for years.
From a fundamental perspective, however, there are early signs of improvement.
Last quarter marked the first time since mid-2024 that HD saw both positive pre- and post-earnings drift.
The company has also now reported back-to-back quarters of positive revenue and EPS growth for the first time in years.
So the fundamentals are turning.
But until the technicals confirm, it doesn’t mean much.
We want to see the price resolve this range before forming a strong opinion.
Lowe’s, on the other hand, looks much stronger.
LOW reports Wednesday before the open, with expectations for $20.35B in revenue and $1.94 in earnings per share.
While HD remains rangebound, LOW is pressing toward fresh all-time highs.
In relative terms, Lowe’s is also emerging as the new leader within the home improvement retail space. The LOW/HD ratio is breaking out to its highest level since 2010.
The earnings scorecard reinforces this leadership shift.
LOW has now reported back-to-back quarters of positive top- and bottom-line growth and has been rewarded for two consecutive earnings reports and three of the last four.
Perhaps most notably, the stock has experienced positive post-earnings drift for four straight quarters, something we rarely see in a mature large-cap retailer like this.
Heading into next week, we prefer LOW over HD.
If management can continue to demonstrate improving growth, this breakout could gain serious traction.
That's it for this week. Now go watch the final day of the Olympics!
-The Beat Team
P.S. AI is coming for retail, and Jeff Macke just gave away the inside scoop on how to profit from this generational trend.
