The All Star Options newsletter is completely AI-Free. Not a word you will read here was generated by an LLM. All words are typed by my boney, imperfect fingers, as a translation of thoughts from my wildly imperfect brain. Trading is messy, and so is real writing. You're welcome.
Hello again, Spirit Animals.
Continuing the application of Mark Douglas' Five Fundamental Truths about trading applied to life, today we explore:
Truth #3: There is a Random Distribution Between Wins and Losses
According to Douglas, even a good system can have several losses in a row, a win when the setup looks weak, or a loss when the setup looks perfect. This is where most traders break psychologically. They think a few losses mean the system is broken, or they get overconfident after a few wins.
According to Dr. Julis Torelli, this is how this same principle applies to life:
There is a Random Distribution Between Effort and Outcomes
You can:
• Do everything right and still lose
• Love well and still be left
• Take care of your body and still get sick
• Raise a child well and still watch them suffer
• Work hard and still fail
And the opposite is also true:
• Careless people sometimes win
• Selfish people sometimes prosper
• Undisciplined people sometimes get lucky
This offends the mind because the mind wants life to be morally tidy. It is not.
Spiritual maturity begins when you stop using outcomes as absolute proof of worth, truth, or virtue.
Effort changes the probability distribution even though it does not control any single outcome. The quality of your effort is the one thing that is actually yours. The outcome belongs to a thousand variables you cannot see or control. The mature position is effort without negotiation. You do the thing because it is yours to do. What happens next is not your department.
Sean here:
Randomness is hard. It makes no sense. It can't be predicted. It can't be anticipated.
Even when I do everything within my power and I still get an unsatisfactory result -- I might know that life (and trading) is random, but it still pisses me off. I'm human.
Maybe it's good every once in a while to let out a little rage (without hurting yourself or anyone in your vicinity). It can take a lot of forms: blaring loud music, crying into a pillow, running 3 miles, shaving your head, watching re-runs of Real Housewives, or climbing a mountain. Whatever it takes to shake it off.
Randomness will strike you. In the markets, in your home, at the office, on the road, in your relationships, in your health, in your politics, and in so many more places.
Will it derail you?
All we can do is put forward our best efforts. Again, and again. This is a best practice that pays off -- over the long run.
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