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The Bubble Is Still Paying

Qnity Electronics $Q just gave us another reason to ride the semiconductor bubble.

Tuesday morning looked like it might finally give the bulls a reason to breathe.

The S&P 500 sold off early, slipped almost 1% from Monday's close, and gave the bears a shot.

But they whiffed...

By the closing bell, the S&P 500 had recovered most of the damage and finished nearly flat. Bull markets absorb supply and keep rotating into the stocks with the best combination of price action, earnings sentiment, and fundamentals.

And right now, nowhere is that combination more obvious than in semiconductors.

The legendary market technician, Jeff deGraaf, stopped by What Are Your Thoughts (minutes 3 to 18), the show hosted by our good friends Josh Brown and Michael Batnick.

And Jeff gave a timely reminder about bubbles. His rule of thumb is simple: when an index or sector doubles in less than two years, you are no longer in a normal environment. 

This is the case for the Semiconductors ETF $SOXX, which has rallied about 250% since April of last year.

That doesn't mean you should sell everything or get short. It means you respect the altitude you're flying at, manage your position size, and understand that the biggest money is often made in the most uncomfortable part of the move.

In other words, ride the bubble. Just don’t fall asleep at the wheel.

And that brings us to Tuesday’s Beat Sheet.

*Click the image to enlarge it

We only had four new S&P 500 earnings reactions, but the message was unmistakably bullish. 

Every stock on the list rallied, and every reaction score landed in positive territory.

And the biggest standout was Qnity Electronics $Q.

This is a semiconductor equipment and materials stock that went public in October of last year.

The market welcomed it with open arms on day one, and it has barely looked back since. From its opening print near $70.50, Q has now rallied roughly 150%, and Tuesday’s earnings reaction only added more fuel to the fire.

Qnity reported a double beat, rallied almost 10% for its best earnings reaction ever, and closed at a new all-time high.

Since going public, Q has carved out a series of constructive bases and continued grinding higher. 

Because it's trading at new all-time highs, no bagholders are waiting to sell into strength. There's nothing but blue skies ahead.

And the fundamental story explains why buyers are willing to chase it.

Qnity sits in the materials and interconnect layer of the AI infrastructure buildout. 

As the semiconductor industry moves from two-dimensional chip design toward three-dimensional architectures, the importance of advanced materials, packaging, thermal management, signal integrity, and reliability increases dramatically.

That is Qnity’s wheelhouse.

The company reported net sales growth of 18% YoY, with adjusted EPS up 33% over the same period. 

What's more, the management team raised its full-year guidance across every major financial metric. 

In other words, Q is breaking out as the business accelerates. 

Yes, semiconductors are hot. Maybe too hot.

But that is not a reason to ignore the strongest names. 

So long as Q holds above $140, the path of least resistance is decisively higher for the foreseeable future.

Simon Property Group $SPG told a very different story, but it was just as important.

This is not a speculative growth stock whose valuation requires a flawless future.

It is the largest retail REIT in America, yielding more than 4%, and it is trading at the highest total return levels in history.

Simon Property Group is the kind of quiet leadership people miss when they only stare at the flashiest parts of the tape.

After Monday's closing bell, the company reported a big double beat and rallied 2.3%, marking its fourth consecutive positive earnings reaction. 

Simon’s first quarter came in ahead of plan, driven by occupancy gains, stronger shopper traffic, higher retailer sales, and broad-based tenant demand. 

The company signed more than 1,100 leases totaling over 4.7 million square feet during the quarter, with about 25% of that leasing volume coming from new deals. 

With all of this new cash, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 7.1% and increased its full-year guidance.

And on a total-return basis, SPG has completed a massive 10-year base and is grinding toward new all-time highs. 

The dividend matters here, which is why the total return chart tells the right story. This stock provides price appreciation and cash flow.

With SPG in the early stages of a brand-new primary uptrend, and earnings sentiment serving as a tailwind, we expect the stock to keep making new highs for the foreseeable future.

If you want access to our highest conviction technical and fundamental trades, join our growing community at the Premium Beat Report.

We hope you enjoyed this post,

-The Beat Team


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