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The Beat Wasn’t Enough

Thursday’s earnings reactions showed exactly why the numbers matter less than how the market responds to them.

Yesterday, we received seven new earnings reactions from the S&P 500.

Every company beat headline expectations, and yet, the reactions were wildly different.

Agilent Technologies $A, Dollar Tree $DLTR, Hormel Foods $HRL, and Best Buy $BBY all ripped higher following their earnings reports. 

On the other side of the tape, Salesforce $CRM, HP $HPQ, and Synopsys $SNPS all got punished despite reporting better-than-expected numbers.

*Click the image to enlarge it

That is why we study reactions, not just results.

The numbers tell us what happened inside the business, while the reaction tells us whether the market cares.

And right now, the market is being very clear. 

Investors are willing to chase companies that deliver strong results and guidance. 

But investors aren't handing out participation trophies to every stock that beats estimates.

And that brings us to yesterday's best reaction.

Agilent Technologies $A is a $38 billion diagnostics and research tools company that sells the instruments, software, services, and laboratory technology that help scientists, pharma companies, clinical labs, chemical companies, and advanced materials customers do their work.

Agilent reported a double beat and exploded 16.9% for its best earnings reaction since 2002. This isn't typical for a mature lab tools company, which is why it has caught our attention.

Heading into the report, A was carving out a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

And Thursday’s earnings reaction launched the stock right back into a key level of interest around $135.

If buyers can push Agilent decisively through this level, the next logical area of interest is the November peak near $160.

In the report, Agilent expanded its operating margin by 130 basis points YoY, while increasing revenues by 10% over the same period.

What's more, the management team also raised guidance across the board.

And clearly, the market loves what this company is doing.

For a stock that has been living in the penalty box over the past few months, Thursday’s reaction was a major shift. 

Agilent delivered better-than-expected results, raised its outlook, and the stock responded with its best earnings reaction since the early 2000s.

Now the question is whether buyers can finish the job at $135.

And while A was rewarded for beating the market's expectations, Synopsys was not. 

After posting a double beat, Synopsys fell 8.6%, making this the seventh negative earnings reaction in the past eight reports. 

That is a brutal run of consistent negative earnings reactions for one of the most important software infrastructure companies in the semiconductor ecosystem.

Synopsys is a critical picks-and-shovels business for the chip design world. 

Its electronic design automation tools, semiconductor IP, and newly expanded simulation capabilities sit directly inside the AI infrastructure supply chain. 

As chips become more complex, as hyperscalers push deeper into custom silicon, and as multi-die and chiplet architectures become more important, Synopsys should be a long-term beneficiary.

But the market isn't buying this story right now...

Synopsys beat the market's headline expectations and raised its forward guidance, but it wasn't enough to spark a rally.

Heading into the report, SNPS was testing a shelf of former resistance from earlier this year. 

A strong reaction could have launched the stock through that level, putting the finishing touches on a massive base. Instead, sellers showed up again.

And until SNPS can push through $535, we expect more rangebound price action.

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Happy Friday!

-The Beat Team


Editor's Note: Most investors won't pay attention until this trend is obvious. 

By then, the biggest gains may already be gone. 

Get the full breakdown of the $100 Trillion Trade and the potential 100-bagger Louis is watching.