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The Market Picked Its Survivor

Two broken charts faced the same test, but only one passed.

On Friday, the broader market finally took a punch, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst session since October and snapping a nine-week winning streak. 

But beneath that index-level volatility, the earnings tape gave us a cleaner and more useful message.

Cooper Companies $COO and Lululemon $LULU entered Friday with nearly identical technical setups. 

Both stocks were buried in primary downtrends, had spent years carving out massive distribution patterns, and were sitting near long-term support levels that either produce major failed breakdowns or open the door to another leg lower.

Then the market delivered its verdict...

COO reported a double beat, bounced off of support, and ripped higher for its best earnings reaction in eight quarters. 

LULU also reported a double beat, but the stock was crushed anyway, breaking to its lowest level since 2018 and confirming that sellers remain firmly in control.

That is the whole point of the Beat Sheet.

The headline numbers said both companies beat, but the reactions told us only one of them mattered.

*Click the image to enlarge it

COO was the clear winner as the stock rose by 8.6%, with a reaction score just shy of 8. 

The stock has spent years carving out a massive distribution pattern, with the $59 area acting as the key line in the sand. 

That level has been tested repeatedly since 2020, and heading into Friday, the stock was once again pressing against that long-term support zone.

But instead of breaking down, COO ripped higher.

And the fundamentals are why the buyers stepped in. 

Cooper Companies delivered record revenue and non-GAAP earnings, with revenue growing 8% YoY and non-GAAP EPS rising 26% over the same period. 

CooperVision revenue grew 8% YoY, while CooperSurgical revenue grew 8% over the same period. 

Fertility was one of the bright spots, growing 13%, and management maintained its full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance of $4.58 to $4.66 while reaffirming its long-term free cash flow objective of more than $2.2 billion from fiscal 2026 through 2028.

But this isn't a perfect story... 

The Asia-Pacific region remains soft, and the company recorded a large litigation-related charge tied to the CooperSurgical embryo culture media recall.

But the stock already knew it had problems.

COO rallied because the market had already priced in a lot of bad news, and the latest report gave buyers enough ammunition to defend one of the most important levels on the chart.

Above $59, this failed breakdown remains intact.

If the stock continues to build on Friday’s reaction, COO has a chance to start carving out a real repair pattern.

On the flip side, Lululemon was the opposite story.

The company also reported a double beat, but the stock fell 8.6% and closed at its lowest level since 2018, extending one of the market's ugliest large-cap retail downtrends. 

LULU has now been punished for four of its last six earnings reports, and Friday’s reaction confirmed that earnings sentiment remains a major headwind.

Lululemon has spent the past several years carving out a massive top, and the $129 area was the level bulls needed to defend. 

That support zone goes all the way back to the 2020 panic low, making it one of the most important levels on the long-term chart.

And Friday’s reaction sliced right through it.

The fundamentals explain why buyers are still walking away. 

Revenue increased 4% YoY, but comparable sales declined 2% over the same period. 

What's more, America's revenue fell by 3% YoY, and its comparable sales dropped by 6%. 

In addition, gross margin declined 410 basis points to 54.2%, and operating income fell 37%.

The company is still growing internationally, with international revenue up 22%, but North America is not performing as expected. 

And that's what really matters...

For a stock that used to command a premium because of consistent growth and margin strength, last week's report gave buyers no reason to come back.

And that's why the chart looks the way it does.

A few years ago, Lululemon was one of the great consumer growth stories in the market. 

Now the stock is breaking to its lowest level since 2018 as North America weakens, margins compress, comps deteriorate, and investors lose faith in the product engine.

So long as LULU remains below $129, the path of least resistance is decisively lower for the foreseeable future.

If you want access to our highest conviction technical and fundamental trades, join our growing community at the Premium Beat Report.

Happy fishing,

-The Beat Team


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