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All Star Options

There is Less Reason to Fear Earnings Gaps with Options.

October 16, 2024

Earnings season used to be a time I didn't necessarily look forward to as a swing trader.

On the one hand, I've always viewed it as great for bringing volatility and movement to the markets -- which traders thrive on for making money.

On the other hand, I was always uneasy about holding open swing trades overnight into a binary earnings reaction.

I learned this unease in my early trading years when I traded stocks for the very simple reason that my good-til-canceled stop loss order was meaningless in the event of an overnight gap through my stop loss level. I didn't have as much control as I'd like. In fact, in these situations, I had none.

It's taken me some years to warm up to the fact that I don't necessarily need this same mindset when trading defined risk options positions and spreads.

Yes, I can still lose money if a stock gaps through my risk management level (the level I predetermined at which I would close my losing position). But if my risk was defined -- meaning I know the maximum I can lose, and no more -- then an earnings gap in my face will only result in a loss that is more or less like any other loss I take.

I generally keep...

All Star Options

[Options] Searching For Alpha in Regional Banks

October 15, 2024
 

 

On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discussed the two different markets we are each experiencing. He's experiencing one of great breakouts and follow-through. I'm experiencing one of frustration.

Same stock market, different results. That is information. We get into it.

This bull market appears to be on the verge of another leg higher and it might be led by the financials. We both liked the idea of finding alpha down the cap scale in smaller regional banks to participate.

Here's a daily chart of U.S. Bancorp $USB:

 

Today, the stock is printing fresh 52-week highs. 

However, it should be noted that U.S. Bancorp announces earnings before the market opens tomorrow. This introduces binary risk that we need to be aware of and this will affect my position sizing (hint: trading smaller than I normally would).

But we're not going to let earnings keep us away. We feel it could be just the catalyst this stock needs to follow through on this breakout and make a run at $60 per share, or higher.

Here's the Play:

I like buying $USB March 50 calls for approximately $2.30 per...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] The Bigger the Base...

October 14, 2024

...the higher in space.

Today's trade is in household name that is emerging from a 3-year base and on the verge of new all-time highs.

Due to earnings on the horizon, we'll be utilizing a spread to keep our costs in check and take advantage of some relative high options premium in out-of-the-money calls.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Positioning for an Earnings Pop

October 11, 2024

This trade gets classified as a "Hard Trade."

The stock has had a strong runup in recent weeks. Some traders have a hard time buying stocks making highs.

I don't.

But with implied volatility relatively cheap right now in this stock, an earnings event on the horizon, and a potential "two-hundred-dollar-roll" looming ahead, this feels like the right time to take a defined risk shot.

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Leveraging Earnings Premium For a Long Bet

October 9, 2024

As I've discussed recently, earnings season is quickly approaching. And with it comes risks and opportunities.

For today's trade, I'm going to leverage elevated options premiums in a nearby expiration to get a better net cost on the real call options I'd like to own.

And I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get in at attractive prices and a nearby exit if I'm wrong.

All Star Options

[Options] I'd Like to Propose a Toast

October 8, 2024
 

 

Let's all raise our glasses for a toast to the outperformers of this bull market.

Ok, now let's get to work finding stocks setting up that will likely catch the next wave of rotating capital flows.

Today's trade is in a name that is slowly becoming a fixture at just about every eating establishment near me, and likely you too.

Here's a one-year chart of Toast Inc, $TOST:

 

By itself, this is a chart I Iike to buy. But Strazza shares a longer-term chart in the video above that displays the opportunity better.

$TOST is just now showing signs of breaking out of a multi-year base.

But when there is overhead supply to contend with, the breakouts aren't always as clean as we'd like them to be. So we will take advantage of options premiums at out-of-the-money strikes to help keep our cost of participation limited.

Here's the Play:

I like buying a $TOST March 30/40 Bull Call Spread for approximately $2.50 net debit. This means I'll be long the 30 calls and short an equal amount of the 40 calls. The most I can lose is the premium I pay today. And that could be a real possibility if we get a...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Time to Get Paid, Pal.

October 7, 2024

Earnings season is closing in. And the election is right behind it. Surely land mines will be discovered all over the place. There is risk.

So any directional bets I place over the coming weeks will be of a defined-risk nature.

But, where there is risk, there is opportunity. We'll get paid when we're right, perhaps handsomely so.

That is why it is worth wading into the rising rivers here to take some shots while keeping our downsides in check.

All Star Options

Plan B.

October 4, 2024

What happens if you can't exit a position on your brokerage platform?

Do you sit and wait it out, hoping for a quick resolution and an opportunity to exit at your price, or better?

Has that ever worked out for you?

I'm fairly certain that has nearly never worked out for me. If it has, it certainly didn't compensate me for all the times it hasn't. Not financially, and certainly not emotionally.

There's a certain panic that sets in when we lose the ability to take control when we need to. We can't control the markets, but we can control how we react to them. We can choose to take action when we need to.

Except when we can't.

Your broker has a glitch, the platform is down, and nobody will take your calls because their customer service lines are being bombarded by traders just like you who are stuck in positions, looking for a quick exit.

This is a pretty powerless feeling.

Some traders I know experienced this on Friday when a well-known broker for some reason wasn't allowing trading in a certain ticker. It was an error on the broker's part, but nonetheless, customers of this broker went the entire day without the ability to exit...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Hedging My Gas Exposure

October 4, 2024

As an owner of a gas-guzzling SUV, I don't like the prospect of higher oil prices. 

Nobody enjoys paying more at the pump. It's an unavoidable tax and if it gets too high, it can be a real drag on people's finances, and can even spill over into broader consumer spending.

And it certainly can be an inflationary signal for all things we spend money on.

That said, in a small way, I'm going to look to hedge myself against gas inflation by getting involved in a popular filling station operator that will ease my mind if I keep paying more to drive my car.

All Star Options

[Options] Taking What the Market Gives

October 3, 2024
 

 

During today's trades review (in the video above), I discussed how I'm still of the mind to be hunting for opportunities to be bullishly aggressive.

However, the current volatility environment is also offering us spots to add some delta-neutral credit spreads with better-than-average odds of success. I like doing this, if for no other reason than to add some portfolio diversification.

And I demonstrate one way in which I manage open call calendar spreads to manage my risks and give me a better shot at large gains.

All this and the usual stop updates for existing positions.

Enjoy!

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Feeding the Volatility Ducks

October 2, 2024

We've seen a bit of a rise in volatility this week, and while it is not something that should be ignored or scoffed at, I do think it offers us options traders an opportunity to position for some volatility mean-reversion, especially in some big-cap names that are stuck in ranges, ideally tightening ones.

Today's trade is in a well-known name that already has earnings out of the way and fits the bill for some continued sideways action.

All Star Options

[Options] Short Squeeze Candidate in Shipping

October 1, 2024
 

 

On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss this morning's frustrating start to Q4, and whether or not it means anything.

A 20%+ rise in $VIX is not something that should be ignored. But is the market overreacting to today's down tape and is this just related to repositioning in a new month and quarter?

Regardless, we've got a stock on our radar today that is caught up a bit in the news cycle, has a lot of traders caught in short positions, and could be ripe for an epic squeeze if the stock can get out from under a declining Anchored VWAP.

Here's a chart of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services: 

 17% of the outstanding shares for $ZIM are held in short positions. The only way these shorts can stop the bleeding in their accounts is to cover their position by buying stock. And if everyone heads to the exits at the same time, that could propel the stock significantly hired. We've seen it happen before. So we're playing for that possibility, while mindful of the fact that we may run into some near-term resistance by an overhead AVWAP. Watch the video above to see it and how that factors into our thinking. Here's the Play...