I promise there is a trading lesson here. Stick with me...

Two-point lead. Ball on the opponent's 27-yard line. 4th and 2. Two minutes and 27 seconds left on the clock.

The choices are this:

1. Attempt to kick a make-able, but no gimme 44-yard field goal to go up by 5 points. 

2. Pooch punt to pin the opponents inside their 10-yard line for their next drive.

3. Call a play to attempt to gain the 2 yards needed to earn a fresh set of downs and continue running the clock.

Choose option 1 and there is a very real possibility that the Buffalo Bills' sometimes undependable field goal kicker could miss the 3-point try. This would leave the Kansas City Chiefs, and their future Hall of Fame Quarterback Patrick Mahomes with more than two minutes on the clock to move the ball less than 35 yards to put themselves into position to kick the game-winning field goal.

Even if the Bills' kicker makes the field goal, putting the Bills up by 5, there will still be more than two minutes on the play clock. For the team from Kansas City with countless late comeback wins, there is not a...

A nearly 3-year-long bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern has whetted my appetite for today's trade.

And a follow-through could deliver a nice dash for cash.

Our last trade idea post was titled "European Vacation." Today's trade is in a name that is most definitely in the vacation theme.

And if you've attempted to book a hotel room in the past year, you know that rates are soaring. This might be bad for budget-sensitive travelers, but it can be bullish for investors.

So let's hedge our travel expenses.

Stocks are ripping in the U.S.

Is Europe next?

Looking at a basket of the fifty biggest names in Europe, we've got a clean level to bet against for a rotation higher. And a volatility picture that offers us an edge to play it.

It's easy to over-complicate things. 

I generally try to avoid that. Today's trade might be the simplest thing I do: follow a trend.

When a chart is going from the bottom left to the upper right, who am I to call a top in something like that? What kind of arrogance must I have to think I'm the one who can call the turn?

Let somebody else be the hero. I'm going to follow the trend until it ends.

During our Analyst meeting this morning, I observed the relative "calm" in the Chinese Large Cap ETF $FXI and how, while down for the day, it is still holding in a range it's been in for over three weeks now. 

And we love how it's holding this range as a healthy consolidation from its late September breakout.

There's nothing about this chart that is bearish to me:

When I mentioned the relative bargain in long-dated call options in $FXI, JC said: "If we get rotation into China, this trade could make our year.

I agree.

Here's the Play:

I like buying $FXI January 2026 35-strike calls for approximately $3.00 per contract. This premium I pay today is the most I can lose in this trade and I'll size my position accordingly.

Meanwhile, I'm going to take an active roll in reducing my cost basis in this trade by selling nearer-term calls against it. This might not be for everyone (JC said he's not going to do it, for example).

Today, I'll also sell December 35 calls against this position for an approximately 52-cent credit. And I'll look to roll...

Ok, we're going to head abroad and as far away from election risk as we can.

In fact, we're to head to Sweden for today's trade. Is that far enough away?

As we inch closer to the election, the "change-of-narrative" plays still hold interest to me -- both as hedges to my overall bullish positioning, and as alpha generators.

Today's trade is in a "junky" solar name that has gotten beaten down with the rest of it's sector as investors are pricing in a Trump victory that would be perceived as bearish for the Solar Industry.

But what if a Trump victory results in an inverse "sell the news" type of event and the selling pressure gets lifted from this sector? Or, better yet, what if the pollsters are wrong (it's happened before!) and Harris comes out victorious? Wouldn't that result in an immediate narrative shift for this sector? And if that happens, junky stocks like today's trade could potentially offer a tremendous amount of alpha.

Shoutout to my boy Kenny Glick. He's the man. And I feel like I'm channeling him a bit today. I recently saw him talking about how he's getting into a trade in a name that has failed on him so many times in the past. Yet, when there's a favorable setup, he has to step up and take another swing -- even though he's seen this movie before.

I'm going to do something similar today in a crypto miner. I've been beaten time and time again with these things. But one of these times it's got to work! Why not today?

Please forgive my tirade at the beginning of this episode about my short $MTB trade. I had to defend my honor... 

But after that, me and Strazza get into the setup in MARA Holdings $MARA and how we arrived at what might seem to a lot of you (me too) a pretty high risk, but potentially huge reward trade:

For reference again, here's a one-year chart of $MARA:

Here's the Play:

I like entering a $MARA June 15/32 Risk Reversal for a small net credit. This means I'll be naked short the June 15 puts and long an equal amount of the June 32 calls. All in, I should earn a small net credit for putting the...

I'm continuing my recent theme of portfolio diversification today with another short position, this time in a stock that should be performing well heading into Halloween and holiday season -- but isn't.

In fact, the chart looks like its got a lot of room to fall if their upcoming earnings report disappoints.

The one bet I will not be making is that the stock market finishes election week anywhere near where it began the week. 

In other words, there is a high likelihood of a large directional move following the election. And there will likely be some epic whipsaws along the way.

As such, it feels to me that options traders should start building a good mix of both bullish and bearish bets, as well as a wide variety of expirations so as to mute the volatility likely to be introduced to our portfolios.

I don't think we want to be too overweighted on delta-neutral positions (though I think it's a good practice to have one or two on at all times). I do think it is prudent to have some long-premium bets on that can return 5-10x in the direction of the trend. Simple long calls and long puts will do the trick.

Since my portfolio is leaning long at the moment (it is a Bull Market, you know...),...

I do not recommend attempting to pick bottoms and tops. It can be a dangerous game. 

Yes, when you occasionally get one right you can make a killing. But we also put ourselves at risk at getting killed. Especially fading short squeezes, and double especially if you're doing it via getting short common stock.

Smart options traders, however, have an advantage here. We can define our risks precisely. We're going to take advantage of this feature with today's trade, a bet on the unexpected.