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Only the Strong Are Surviving Earnings Season 💪

May 25, 2025

This past week delivered fewer high-profile reports, but the market reactions told us everything we needed to know.

We're seeing a consistent theme: mediocre results are getting punished, and even good reports aren't being rewarded like they used to.

Retail giants are faltering. 

Former Tech leaders are getting faded.

But beneath the surface, a few names are quietly pressing higher on strong setups and improving sentiment.

Here’s what stood out to us last week 👇

  • Monday:
    • Take-Two Interactive Software $TTWO reported mixed results and was punished. This snapped a run of being rewarded for earnings in 4 consecutive quarters.
    • Applied Materials $AMAT reported mixed results and got crushed for it. This was the 5th consecutive negative earnings reaction.
  • Tuesday:
    • No S&P 500 earnings reactions, but we broke down the bullish continuation pattern in Porch Group $PRCH after one of its best earnings reactions ever.
    • The stock is consolidating just below the 38.2% retracement of its prior drawdown, while short interest hits a new 52-week high. We think a fresh leg higher may be on deck.
  • Wednesday:
    • Home Depot $HD turned in mixed numbers and traded lower because of it.
    • The stock has been punished in 3 of its last 5 reports, and the market clearly isn’t impressed with guidance or margins.
  • Thursday:
    • Target $TGT reported a double miss and fell 5% for it. The stock has been punished for 4 of its last 5 earnings reports, and it's completing a massive top.
    • Palo Alto Networks $PANW reported a double beat and got beaten down. The stock has been punished for 5 of its last 7 earnings reports.
  • Friday:
    • Ralph Lauren $RL reported a double beat and rallied. The stock has been rewarded for 9 of its last 11 earnings reports and is flirting with new all-time highs after recently resolving a multi-decade accumulation pattern.
    • Williams-Sonoma $WSM reported mixed results, and the market hated it. The stock has been punished for 4 of its last 5 earnings reports and is carving out a massive distribution pattern.

Here's what we're watching next week:

* Click the image to enlarge it, image is courtesy of Earnings Whispers

We'll hear from the Chinese e-commerce powerhouse Pinduoduo $PDD on Tuesday.

Later in the week, we'll hear from Dick's Sporting Goods $DKS (which recently acquired Foot Locker $FL), Salesforce $CRM (the largest American Software company), Costco $COST, and many more.

There will be a lot to unpack here at The Beat Report.

We're most looking forward to the Nvidia $NVDA earnings report after Wednesday's closing bell, and here's why:

Nvidia has been the undisputed king of the AI-driven bull market.

Since bottoming in late 2022, the stock has surged over 1,300%, cementing its place among the world’s largest corporations.

But more recently, that explosive momentum has stalled.

The bears looked ready to break down a textbook distribution pattern a few weeks ago, but that move failed decisively. 

Now the chart is starting to look more like a “not a top” pattern, with price consolidating in what may be a bull flag.

This week’s earnings report and, more importantly, the market’s reaction, will offer crucial insight into where the stock is headed next.

Despite posting incredible growth in recent quarters, the market hasn’t been as generous. 

In the last report, the company reported 78% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by a 93% surge in data center revenue. 

Instead of being rewarded for the incredible growth, the stock suffered its worst earnings reaction since Q4 2018.

If Wednesday’s report beats expectations again and the market still shrugs, it likely means more sideways action ahead.

But if the bull flag gets confirmed?

All-time highs could be right around the corner.

Thank you for reading.

- The Beat Report Team 


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