I got a lot of great feedback on that post and feel that it's a lesson worth reiterating every once in a while, so today I want to share a great example of the constant barrage of information we have working against us as market participants.
Technical Analysis doesn't give us all the answers. But it certainly goes a long way in helping us ask the right questions. That's really what this is about. No one knows what is going to happen next. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it an even playing field (don't @ me). Where the advantage truly lies is in those who analyze the behavior of the market vs those who ignore it.
There are many investors, most in fact, who completely disregard the behavior of the market in favor of some other brilliant strategy they believed they've come up with. My point is, if at the end of the day, price is the only thing that will pay us, why not start and end the entire process with the study of that price?
Not to get too philosophical on you guys, but just try to think about the things you're thinking about. What are the questions you're asking? Because you certainly don't have the answers. You have no answers, and neither do I. We have, what we think, are higher probability and lower probability outcomes. But we don't actually know.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the relentless buying pressure in stocks throughout the first half of November. Even when the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not register a positive day, the market didn't really go down either. In fact, we've just seen the two smallest down days in the history of the Dow Averages that date back to the 1880s. This is what we're talking about here. Some might think we're overbought, but I would argue that the overbought readings are just normal characteristics of uptrends. They should be overbought. I still think the Dow sees 30,000.
Sean, what is your strategy for handling the impact of Theta on an open position? Is there a bailout point where the time decay outweighs the potential upside?
The answer is YES. Theta, as well as Gamma often become my enemy as we near expiration. Here's how I approach it...
Going through our universe of coverage I noticed weakness in the Rupee over the last week, so this post is going to help put that into the perspective of the longer-term trend and outline how we're approaching it.
Marijuana stocks have been an absolute disaster for longs in 2019, but one chart suggests that after a nearly 60% decline, the Horizons Medical Marijuana ETF and its components are set up for a counter-trend rally.
Here's the daily chart we've been using to guide us since the Horizons Medical Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (HMMJ) came public in April 2017. Following a quick double, prices settled into a 21-month range between 15 and 26 that was broken to the downside in late September after a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence were left unconfirmed.
After falling 35% from that failure and 60% from its 2019 high, the ETF is now showing signs of waning downside momentum as prices quickly recover from new marginal lows. It's also curious to note that this development is occurring at its IPO price around 10.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?