Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended December 10, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Watch this video for a "behind the scenes" look at our process...
Key Takeaway: A surge to new highs can leave stocks out of breath. S&P 500 at an all-time high while more NYSE stocks make new lows than new highs. FOMC meeting likely to feature Fed grappling with surging inflation.
The Technology sector remains at the top of our relative strength rankings. While mega-cap leadership is helpful, sector strength goes beyond that. It is the top-ranked sector from an equal-weight perspective as well as among small-cap sectors. This is also reflected in our industry group heat map, which shows strength out of the Hardware and Semiconductor groups across market cap levels.
Consumer Staples saw a big jump in the rankings this week, and there is plenty of improvement within the Food & Staples Retailing and Household & Personal Products groups within the sector.
With the S&P 500 wrestling with the 4700 level, I've been turning my eyes to some of our more favorable bullish setups.
On Friday, the ASC team published their latest International Hall of Famers List report. This list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks or ADRs. The team takes the 50 largest names each week and then applies technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
The name from this list that caught my attention just saw a dramatic collapse in options volatility, making call options cheaper. And with the stock above the trigger level, it's time for us to get involved.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Struggling With Supply
When we zoom out and look at structural trends there are bases everywhere. This is true for all risk assets, not just stocks, and we’re seeing it on multiple timeframes. Some international indexes are consolidating beneath their dot-com bubble highs from over 20-years ago. Many others, like Emerging Markets and the MSCI World Ex-US index, are currently churning beneath their 2007 highs. Then there is crude oil and small-cap financials (shown in the chart), which are just some among the long list of charts that are still consolidating beneath their 2018 highs. This is a critical level because it is when risk peaked around the globe during the last cycle. Last but not least, there are a lot of stocks and commodities that are currently digesting last year's gains beneath their 2021 highs. The point is that risk assets are still dealing with a lot of overhead resistance, and this is true across...
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
The bottom line is we're in elevated cash positions looking for a higher-conviction entry.
The most probable outcome is that we see a contraction of volatility in Bitcoin while it ranges for the remainder of 2021. If this is the case, whipsaws are likely to be highly concentrated, and there'll be no edge in trading lower time frames or maintaining highly aggressive long positions.
But, as far as the structural picture is concerned, there's little to suggest that much damage has been inflicted on the HODLers, and spot flows continue to paint a bullish picture for 2022.
In today's report, we'll outline why this recent selloff doesn't have the characteristics leading to a deeper correction similar to what took place in May.
This week we’re looking at a long set up in the Industrial Manufacturing sector. Stocks in this sector are performing well and are displaying strength.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
If there is anything that can get this market going it's the US Dollar.
And granted, the S&P500 did just close at a new all-time high. That did happen Friday.
But as we have documented relentlessly here, most stocks are not doing that.
The Average stock on the Nasdaq is down over 30% over the past few quarters.
Most Emerging Markets got destroyed. Chinese Internet is down 60%. Biotechs are crushed down almost 40%. The IPO Index killed. And ARKK Funds are down over 40%.
All is not well underneath the surface.
In fact, all of those sectors I mentioned peaked in February this year. That's when the Nasdaq New Highs list peaked and Nasdaq Advance-Decline lined also peaked.
Most importantly (potentially) is that was when Aussie Dollar peaked, and I don't...
The telecom sector has been in the doldrums for quite some time for multiple reasons. But we're seeing a revival in this sector and leadership has come through from the most unlikely contestant.
Read on to find out which stock we're talking about.