For the past week or so, it's been a feeling to me that markets are setting up for some sideways chop with any directional bias being to the downside from here.
Meanwhile, options volatilities still remain elevated across the board (though well off the March highs) reflecting a lingering fear among market participants of another shoe to drop as the Coronavirus scare continues to effect human health and the global economy.
Against this backdrop, I'm looking for some delta-neutral credit spread strategies to employ. When doing so, I like to scan the most liquid ETFs and look for the ones exhibiting the highest premiums.
The broader markets are starting to show signs that we may be setting up for some sideways-to-down chop.
And one sector that is likely giving investors fits is the financials. During this recent "recovery," $XLF has continually been underperforming relative to the S&P. JC shared this chart today highlighting this observation:
So now that all the "FANG" stocks have reported earnings and their price performance has essentially dragged equities indexes higher over the past month, now what?
As May gets under way, it’s time to review positions with May options that remain open (haven’t already hit profit targets or been stopped out).
Most trades I put on for All Star Options tend to have a minimum duration of 30 days (short premium plays) and often as long as 6-8 months (for long premium plays). As options approach expiration, greeks like theta and gamma start to become my enemy and whipsaw my P/L. Therefore, as options and spreads get into the expiration month, my best practice is to put each position on notice — it’s time to take action.
It would seem that the "new" economy we live in -- one where we order everything online for fear of walking into stores -- would benefit the companies that provide the infrastructure and transportation to make that happen. Fundamentally, that makes sense. But we're chart readers here, and the charts are telling us something different.
The guys at ASC are out with a piece this week highlighting the weakness under the hood in some of the biggest sectors in the US Stock Market. Read it here.
One of the poster children for weakness we want to get short ahead of another possible leg down is setting up right now.
Since I've got a little positive delta building in my portfolio and I'm leaning towards the market feeling a bit overextended here, I'm adding a little negative delta in an index to help balance the risks in my portfolio a bit.
And of course, it makes the most sense to get short the weakest (in relative terms) index to express this hedge.
Say what you will about stock market action since the equities bottom was put in on March 23rd, but either way you can't not be impressed.
Do we go higher from here?
I don't know the answer (hint: neither do you), but I do know that if we do, we're going to be continually led by the leaders in this bounce so far. And one of those leaders is the stock who's company everyone uses -- in some way -- whether you realize it or not: Google.