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There's a stock that has been consolidating just below all-time highs since the beginning of August, and it feels poised to pop.

And options players, as evidenced by this implied volatility chart, are falling to sleep:

 

This means I...

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I say it a lot... volatility mean-reverts lower far more predictably than it mean-reverts higher.

In other words, low volatility does not necessarily presage volatility spikes.

But, when volatility is low and I have a hunch that a big move...

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Today I put on a trade in a company whose services I don’t agree with.

The company is in the sports gambling business—one of the biggest brands out there.

As the father of a sports-crazed eleven-year-old, what this...

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I've made it no secret that I harbor ill-will towards the hyper-promotion of sport gambling. As a father of an 11 year-old sports fan, I find it distasteful that he can't watch any sporting events without getting pounded over the head to get involved...

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Today's trade is in a stock that had a beautiful breakout BEFORE the Powell news that ripped the broader markets higher.And it's in a company that many of use just about every day to spend money on our daily expenses. Maybe we should get rewarded for...

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Today's trade is in the metals space in a stock that is breaking out of a multi-year base.It has the potential to go on a monster, long-term run. But I'm going to play for the initial thrust which offers us the possibility of 7x-ing our money (or more...

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I almost permanently blinded myself—maybe even killed myself—once during band rehearsal in college.

For two years, I played lead guitar and backing vocals in a rock band with one of my best friends and two other great dudes. We used to rehearse...

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We’re in that stretch of the year when seasonality makes holding long positions an act of extreme patience. The last couple weeks of summer often bring thinner volumes, and with fewer participants, it can feel like watching paint...

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Today's trade is likely going to need some time. 

But the nice thing about Calendar Spreads is, we can have time work for us when making directional bets.

So let's get after it.

 

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It's a bull market, but even here we can find stocks that aren't acting right and are completing tops.And I like the idea of having some bearish portfolio diversification, so today's trade is a bearish bet in a stock that looks sick to...

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Please send some grace my way.

I’m in the very early stages of putting together something I’ve wanted for years: a tight-knit group of traders. Not the kind of group that swaps trade ideas, debates setups, or obsesses over the latest...

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Today's trade is in a name that had a monster gap recently, has consolidated over the past week, and might be offering a gift of an entry today thanks to a 3% pullback.

This might be our last best chance to punch a ticket on this...

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I've gotten a lot of feedback from yesterday's note. Turns out, there's a lot of Steve Poltz fans amongst you. I had no idea! If you missed yesterday's note, you can read it ...

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In trading, we prize rational, mechanical thinking. We try to minimize emotion wherever possible — following systems and rules with robotic discipline to reduce errors and maximize returns.

That works for some.

But is it the ideal?

...

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Today's trade is in a consumer staple that has made fresh 52-week highs recently, is on the cusp of a breakout from a multi-year base, and has dirt cheap implied volatility in the options. 

With new all-time highs in sight,...

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Can we ever have enough exposure to the investing theme that is likely to dominate the narrative for years to come?

Regardless what you feel about artificial intelligence, it's here to stay. And there will be tremendous wealth...

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