Today I closed a winning trade. Booked a gain. The kind of thing I tell others (and myself) to celebrate.
So why do I feel bad about it?
Maybe “bad” isn’t the right word. More like unsettled.
Here’s the situation:
The stock had started to break down a bit on the daily chart, so I followed my process and exited. Textbook move, right?
But here’s what’s bothering me…
The stock is still above its 50-day moving average.
It’s still in a hot sector.
And I had January 2027 calls. That’s over 18 months until expiration!
With that much time, why did I feel the need to micromanage?
This is one of those moments where the trade was technically breaking support, yes — but the bigger question I’m sitting with is: Did I kneecap this trade too early? Did I cut off a potential monster winner because I was too zoomed in?
My risk was defined. I could’ve ridden it longer.
Maybe smaller sizing would’ve helped me let it breathe?
Maybe I’m just overthinking? (I do that.)
But one reminder that helps bring me back to center:
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Lately, I’m noticing more people talking about how the market has “come too far too fast.” Some are even licking their chops, ready to jump in short and try to catch what they’re sure will be an “epic reversal.”
This kind of talk makes me uncomfortable.
Not because I disagree that a pullback could happen — anything can happen. But because I know the psychology behind this kind of positioning. It’s not usually about...
Stop losses. Profit targets. They’re there for a reason. They say, “This is as far as I’m willing to go.” They define my comfort zone — both for risk and for reward.
If a trade moves beyond my stop, I start losing more than I’m okay with.
If a stock races beyond my upper price target, I start to worry it’s overextended and due for a sharp correction.
These aren’t just technical lines on a chart — they’re psychological lines in the sand. And as much as I know they’re important, I’ll admit: boundaries are hard for me.
Sometimes I break them.
Sometimes I blur them.
Sometimes I forget why I set them in the first place.
And the more time I spend in the markets, the more I realize:
Trading teaches me about far more than markets — it teaches me about me.
Every time I ignore a stop loss or stretch a target, I’m not just failing as a trader — I’m revealing something deeper about how I operate. Because when I struggle to hold boundaries in my trading, it’s usually because I’m struggling to hold boundaries in other parts of my life, too.
Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.
If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks are likely to perform well in the future. So this is a positive development from a broader market perspective.
So today's trade is in a lesser known semiconductor name that is atop the relative strength leaderboard.
“You don’t need to take reckless risk. But you do need to stop treating your inner-knowing like it’s a dangerous enemy.”
That line’s been bouncing around in my head all week.
I talk all the time about the importance of having a plan and sticking to it. Because, truthfully, trading without a plan is just gambling with a more expensive costume on. I need a framework — some sense of what I'm trying to do, what I'm risking, and what outcomes I'm aiming for.
Planning is visualizing.
When I build a plan, I’m creating a map of what could happen — the likely, the unlikely, the hoped-for, and the dreaded. Mapping out scenarios helps me prepare emotionally and financially for what may unfold.
But sometimes, the market veers off-script. And in those moments, another voice enters the chat.
Today's trade is in a name that specializes in 3D geolocation technology, offering positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions—especially in situations where traditional GPS fails.
And I think it's got all-time highs in it's sights.
Today I closed out a trade in $CRK that I opened back in mid-March — a September 22/30 Bull Call Spread I bought for $1.85.
The most that spread could have been worth on expiration day is $8.00. I closed it today for $5.40:
So naturally, the question is:
Why didn’t I hold out for more?
Simple: Time and risk.
There are still 93 days left until expiration. Yes, the stock is trading above my short strike, and yes, in theory this spread could still work its way up to full value.
But holding for that last $2.60 of potential upside means I’d be risking the $5.40 it’s worth today — a healthy open profit — for a maybe.
That’s not a tradeoff I like.
I know, I know — once both strikes are in the money, a debit spread becomes a positive theta position. Every day the stock stays above the short strike, a little more value seeps into the trade. I get that. But the key word is “a little.” Theta drip is slow and steady. The risk of a sharp reversal, especially after the run $CRK has just had, feels much more significant to me.
Today's trade is in a $29B ultra-processed packaged foods giant that has been struggling since 2023 and feels like its hanging on the precipice of a deeper fall.
Whether or not that comes to pass, this stock feels like a good place to put on a slightly bearish bet to give my bullish portfolio a bit of diversification in case the broader market stalls here.
When my friend and client—who manages a three-commas portfolio—calls me with a trade idea, I listen.
Sure, he’s human like the rest of us. Prone to bias, emotion, and the occasional bad read. But over the years, he’s earned my respect. He’s sharp, curious, and often brings fresh perspective to the table. So when his name pops up on my phone, I answer.
This week, he rang me up to talk about a stock that’s down 95% from its highs.
I’ll be honest—where I come from, we call that dumpster diving.
But as he laid out his case, I started to lean in.
He noted signs of a likely turn in the broader sector. He pointed out a major price gap from ten months ago that, if filled, could offer serious upside. And he reminded me that the stock in question is a “story stock”—the kind momentum traders love to chase if the price action gives them the green light.
While we talked, I pulled up the options chain and started scanning out in time—way out.
I found a June 2026 call with a roughly 1-in-4 shot of landing in the money. But if we’re right and that gap fills? That option could return 30x.