The Dollar has been surprisingly quiet over the past six months — barely moving on the surface.
But beneath that calm, commercial hedgers have been steadily accumulating at levels we haven’t seen since 2021.
The smart money is taking its largest net long position in over four years.
These are the players with the deepest pockets and the strongest hands.
This is where our COT data becomes invaluable. It’s not a trade signal on its own, but it’s a powerful way to gauge market sentiment and positioning.
The real move comes once the extreme positioning starts to unwind — that’s when price action tends to follow, and that’s when I’ll be paying close attention.
We saw a similar setup back in 2021, which preceded one of the biggest rallies in Dollar history. It’s an excellent example of how these kinds of positioning extremes can set the stage for major moves.
For DXY, the 100 level remains the line in the sand. A serious bullish scenario is unlikely without reclaiming that mark.
Stay sharp,
Alfonso De Pablos, CMT
Director of Research, All Star Charts
Editor's Note: We’ve been pressing the gas with Breakout Multiplier lately, and one of our recent trades is paying off big.
On September 9, we bought the $RGTI 10/17 $20 calls for $0.59. Just a month later, this trade is up 4,646%.
I’ve unlocked the original post so you can see the full setup, all the details, and exactly what we were thinking when we put it on.
