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Alfonso’s Daily Note

HACK the Market

June 13, 2025

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With geopolitical pressures heating up in the Middle East, cybersecurity stocks are back in focus.

These companies build the digital armor that protects governments, businesses, and ordinary folks from online threats—and honestly, that feels more essential than ever right now.

The Cybersecurity ETF $HACK is up 34% from its April lows, and it’s been outperforming the broader market the whole way.

After a clean retest of its prior cycle highs, HACK is boomeranging with a near-vertical move. 

Now it’s bumping up against that 161.8% Fibonacci extension around 85 — the same level that stopped it cold earlier this year.

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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Don’t Ignore Bonds

June 12, 2025

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When I started diving into markets back in 2018, bonds barely caught my eye. Now, they’re on my radar every single day.

Over time, I’ve learned just how important they really are.

You might not like it. Maybe they seem boring or too slow. Maybe you don’t trade them at all.

But the bond market moves everything else. It always has—and it always will.

For some perspective, the bond market sits at $140 trillion—far bigger than global equities, with gold, silver, and crypto nowhere near that size.

Every time the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT gets down near this level, buyers show up.

 

Every single time.

If TLT is...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Failed Top in Semis

June 11, 2025

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Semiconductors are probably the most important companies on the planet—they power today’s economy and carry heavy weight in major global indexes.

How they perform often sets the tone for the broader market.

Earlier this year, semis looked like they were about to break down and complete a nasty top relative to the S&P 500.

However, that didn’t last long. They bounced back quickly and reclaimed a key support level.

 

Bulls are scoring points and hooking higher, invalidating any negative implications from a potential breakdown.

This action can only be seen as a positive signal for the entire market.

After all, the big players are here to play—not to be benched...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Watch the Little Guys

June 10, 2025

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The biggest development this week is unfolding in the market’s most risk-on corners.

When we look down the cap scale, small-cap stocks are breaking out—reclaiming a key level of resistance at the index level.

The Russell 2000 $IWM didn’t just punch through a horizontal brick wall—it also broke above a downward trendline that’s been in place since the highs from last year.

Most importantly, it’s now trading above the anchored VWAP from its all-time high.

 

That last point is crucial—it means the average buyer since the Russell’s peak is finally in the green.

Buyers are back in control, marking a major development that reinforces the bullish thesis for equities.

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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Space Stocks Are Mooning

June 9, 2025

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If you’ve been following along, you already know the offense is on the field.

$ARKK is resolving higher from a bull flag, small caps are back in gear, and Bitcoin is flirting with all-time highs.

All of this speaks to a positive environment for risk appetite.

And today, it’s been all about space and exploration — at least in my trading account. 

These stocks are mooning. Pun intended.

The ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF $ARKX just printed fresh all-time highs...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Silver’s Ready to Rock

June 5, 2025

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Commodities are waking up.

Gold kicked things off — like it always does. It’s been stair-stepping higher for months, leading the charge and telling the world to start paying attention to this space.

Now silver’s stepping up.

I’ve been waiting for this one for a while. And it finally looks like the breakout is underway. .

Silver is resolving from a massive base and pushing to levels we haven’t seen in over 13 years. 

 

A decisive move above 35 could open the path toward those old all-time highs near 50.

If you want to know what silver could look like in the coming months, just look at gold.

Gold already made the...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Europe’s Defense Stocks Are on a Tear

June 4, 2025

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Aerospace and Defense stocks have been on an absolute tear these days.

This group has quietly become one of the strongest pockets within Industrials, showing serious leadership and momentum.

But the real fireworks are coming from European names. These stocks have been stealing the show lately.

We put together our own equally weighted index to track Europe’s core defense and aerospace leaders.

Check it out:

 

Since breaking out of a base in late 2023, this index has basically gone vertical.

These aren’t just big names — they’re the backbone of Europe’s military-industrial complex, chosen from countries that matter most on the geopolitical stage:

    ...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Green Flags

June 3, 2025

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The market bottomed in April and hasn’t looked back. 

The V-shape recovery scenario is playing out — and stocks are delivering across the board. 

We saw the signs early — momentum thrusts, rotation into risk-on areas like tech and industrials, international expansion. 

These things made us confident we’d seen a valid reversal. 

And now we’re seeing the natural next step: continuation patterns breaking out. ...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

A Major Breakout for Miners

June 2, 2025

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Gold has been one of the strongest and clearest uptrends in the market this year.

While most investors have been glued to recession headlines or getting whipped around by the latest macro drama, gold’s been quietly leading — breaking out to new all-time highs and holding them like a champ.

And now the strength is spreading.

Silver’s finally catching a strong bid. Copper’s perking up. And the miners are finally breaking out.

The Junior...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

All-Time Highs in Israel

May 29, 2025

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There’s real strength showing up abroad—and it’s not some new development. Just more of the same.

Today, my country ETF scan was on fire, showing bullish setups across the globe.

I continue to see leadership out of Europe, Asia, Latin America—even Africa. Many of these charts are in relentless uptrends and holding strong.

And participation just keeps expanding as the good ones seem to drag the laggards higher with them over time.

But the one that caught my eye today was Israel.

Israel isn’t your typical emerging market story. Unlike many other countries, it’s not driven by commodities or heavy industry. Instead, it is built on software, cybersecurity, and innovation.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Toyota is a Tech Investor

May 28, 2025

I’ve been tracking insider transactions for the past three years.

I’ve learned a ton along the way.

From Form 4s and 13Ds/Gs to political filings—hedge funds, the C-suite, you name it. 

There are a million reasons insiders sell: paying for a wedding, getting divorced, buying a house, taking a vacation. But there’s only one reason they buy. And that’s because they think the stock’s going up.

I’ve seen it all—from Nancy Pelosi riding the Mag 7 wave, to CEOs and CFOs stepping in during selloffs, and top hedge funds putting serious skin in the game. We cover all these different insiders. 

Sometimes there’s something there. Sometimes there’s not. 

This morning, we got a big one. I woke up to a monster Form 4 from Toyota Motor showing a $250 million investment in Joby Aviation $JOBY.

Joby’s building electric aircraft for urban air mobility—think of them like flying taxis.

And this is...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

A Juicy Trade

May 27, 2025

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Over the years, my process as a trader and investor has gone through constant refinement. I've learned to trust the charts, simplify my approach, and focus on clean, asymmetric setups.

But something has truly elevated my game recently — and that’s trading options.

I’ve been doing it for quite some time now, but what really helped me take things to the next level is working with Steve and learning how to gain leverage while keeping risk clearly defined. That’s been a game changer.

It’s all about getting more juice out of the same setups — with full control over risk.

Lately, there’s one stock in particular that’s been an absolute textbook example of this.

BigBear.ai Holdings $BBAI.

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