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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Revisiting Healthcare’s Past

May 20, 2025

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It’s been over five years since COVID.

It feels like yesterday—locked at home, glued to the news, airports shutting down, vaccine headlines everywhere.

That was 2020 and healthcare stocks were some of the biggest winners during that chaos. Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca—they were ripping higher.

But that didn’t last.

Since peaking in March 2020, healthcare stocks have been quietly underperforming. 

The ratio of Equal Weight Health Care vs Equal Weight S&P 500 ($RSPH / $RSP) has been trending lower ever since.

 

Now we’re back to where it all started. 

The ratio is sitting right at a major support level. This...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Leading the V

May 19, 2025

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We just flipped the script—and it happened fast. In a matter of weeks, we’ve gone from full-blown washout to a full-speed rebound. 

We’re in the middle of a textbook V-shaped recovery. And we’re seeing rotation back into risk assets, which supports the bullish action in the broader market. 

The bulls are back in control.

Just look at Industrials $XLI. It is now the first sector ETF to reclaim its all-time highs and complete the V.

 

This...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Failed Top in the Dow/Gold Ratio

May 14, 2025

It’s been an incredible week in New Orleans with the whole crew and some of our closest friends.

There’s nothing like getting together in person — sharing ideas, and looking at the market from every angle.

JC opened with his “State of the Markets,” highlighting the hottest ETFs.

Strazza broke down his Breakout Multiplier strategy, and Sean followed with some live trades.

Riley covered robotaxis and flying cars, Louis talked crypto, and Rick closed with speculative tech.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

I’m Long Uber

May 12, 2025

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I just arrived in New Orleans for the Portfolio Accelerator event, and I’m absolutely fired up!

It’s my first time here, and the vibe is unreal.

We’ve got three full days ahead of deep-dive trading ideas, strategy sessions, and exploring what’s working in today’s market.

The whole crew is here—JC, Steve, Sean, Louis… it’s going to be amazing.

Now, let’s talk about Uber.

It’s one of my top picks right now.

I included it in last week’s Jr. Mags 7 post—definitely check it out if you haven’t...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Is Ethereum Back?

May 9, 2025

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Today was Crypto Friday on the Morning Show, and let me tell you—Ethereum absolutely stole the spotlight.

For years, ETH has been the “ugly duckling” of the crypto world, stuck in a sideways chop, underperforming everything else.

But this week, that could finally be changing.

The ETH/BTC ratio is bouncing off those key 2019 and 2020 lows—levels that sparked one of ETH’s best runs ever.

 

I can’t think of a more constructive sign for the entire crypto land than seeing ETH finally take charge and start to catch up.

It’s about time. If ETH is ever going to stop underperforming... it’s now.

That...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Next Magnificent 7

May 8, 2025

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Everyone knows the Magnificent Seven — the giants that led the last few cycles and sit atop the market cap leaderboard.

They were the best investments of their time. 

One could easily argue they are the best stocks  of all time. 

But a new wave of leadership is emerging.

A fresh generation of growth companies are stepping up, poised to become the next global dominators.

These aren’t moonshot growth plays — they’re real businesses with solid revenue, scale, and strong momentum.

Call them the Successors, the Junior Mag 7 — whatever name sticks.

What matters is they have all the ingredients to lead...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

All Eyes on the Euro

May 7, 2025

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The US Dollar Index $DXY lives and dies by the Euro.

The Eurozone and the US are two of the largest economic blocs in the world, and their currencies sit at the heart of global trade and capital flows. 

It’s no surprise that the Euro makes up nearly 60% of the DXY — so when EUR/USD moves, it doesn’t just influence the Dollar Index, it drives it.

This year, the Euro has ripped higher in a near-vertical line, breaking out of a massive multi-year base.

 

Now price is coiling just above former resistance near 1.1240 — a key level that’s flipped into support.

This is a textbook bullish pennant pattern forming right above the breakout level, with strong momentum behind it.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Next Big Tech Leader?

May 6, 2025

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With the market back above key levels, we're seeing early signs of rotation, particularly into tech. 

Among the tech subsectors, cybersecurity is emerging as a standout, showing strong potential to lead the next phase of growth.

This group has been carving out a massive bottoming formation relative to the S&P 500 for over two years.

 

We've seen multiple failed attempts at the top of the range — but now we're back at those former highs, and this thing looks ready to go.

This is what a bearish-to-bullish reversal looks like.

If this base completes and this breakout holds, then it will mark the...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

From Shakeout to Breakout

May 5, 2025

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The relentless bid for international equities continues to stand out—and it’s getting harder to ignore.

Outside the U.S., we’re seeing a textbook V-bottom in progress. Stocks around the world are recovering fast and fierce, with many regions snapping back toward new highs.

Just look at the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF $EFA. It erased all its March and April losses in no time. 

After briefly undercutting last year’s lows, EFA shook out the weak hands, trapped the bears, and ripped right back above the upper bounds of the range.

 

These shakeouts that lead to breakouts are some of the most bullish setups out there. 

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note,
All Star Charts Premium

Speculative Growth Is Heating Up

May 4, 2025

The stock market just closed higher for 9 straight sessions.

We’re seeing a textbook V-shaped recovery unfold, especially with major indexes and sectors reclaiming key levels and repairing the damage from last month’s selloff.

When we look under the surface, the more speculative, high-beta areas of the market are starting to wake up and look ready to catch higher.

We call that risk appetite. And that’s exactly what our custom speculative growth index was designed to track. 

 

After a sharp pullback, the riskiest stocks in the market are bouncing right where they should.

Former resistance has turned into support. It’s the polarity principle at its finest. 

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Small-Caps Could Start a New Leg Higher

May 1, 2025

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Small-caps are back on my radar this week as they try to reclaim leadership versus large-caps.

While they’re the smallest stocks in the market—when they move, they carry real information.

Think of small-caps as a proxy for market breadth—they represent a wide swath of the market, from regional banks to biotechs, industrials, and other other smaller players across the board.

When you look at every major market bottom this century, it has been followed by small-caps stepping up and leading the way at the start of a new leg higher—at least for a time.

That’s not a coincidence. It’s a clear signal of the underlying health and breadth needed for a rally to gain traction, reflecting broad market participation beyond the large-cap giants.

...
Alfonso’s Daily Note

Tech Is Back

April 30, 2025

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Just a few weeks ago, Tech looked like dead weight — it was the main culprit behind the recent market correction and was on the verge of completing a massive top.

But fast forward to today, and the picture looks very different.

Price briefly broke below a critical support zone, only to snap back with force as buyers stepped in exactly where they needed to — trapping the bears and flipping the narrative.

Now, XLK has reclaimed the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs.

 

That’s the equivalent key level that the major indexes are fighting with right now...