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The Weekly Beat πŸ“ˆ

Earnings are the heartbeat of the market, and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks. 

With each report, we get new information on corporate health, investor sentiment, and where money is rotating.

In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week: the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets. 

Then we shift our focus to the week ahead, breaking down the technicals and fundamentals.

Whether it’s mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we’ve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.

What happened last week πŸ‘‡

  • Monday:
    • There were no S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we highlighted a recent non-S&P 500 earnings reaction that caught our attention. Its name is Rubrik $RBRK.
    • This company sits at the intersection of cyber, data, identity, and AI. And the stock just had a historic earnings reaction, which we believe was the initiation for a fresh leg higher.
  • Tuesday:
    • Again, there were no S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we wrote about a red-hot Canadian bank.
    • Canadian banks have been absolute monsters for decades, backed by conservative underwriting, dominant domestic market share, and a regulatory environment that favors scale. Toronto-Dominion Bank $TD is a perfect example of that.
  • Wednesday:
    • Getting back to S&P 500 earnings reactions, Campbell's $CPB was punished for beating expectations. The stock is now trading at the lowest level since 2009.
    • Following a double miss, Autozone $AZO suffered its worst earnings reaction since 2018. After this massive downside move, the stock is on the cusp of resolving a prolonged distribution pattern.
  • Thursday:
    • There were no S&P 500 earnings reactions, so we covered one of the strongest earnings reactions of the season in a name you've probably never heard of.
    • Photronics $PLAB isn’t a name most investors think of when discussing semiconductors, but it should be. The stock is trading at fresh multi-decade highs, and just had its best earnings reaction of the 21st century.
  • Friday:
    • In the S&P 500, we heard from several software giants. Adobe $ADBE crushed its headline expectations and rallied more than 2%.
    • On the flip side, Oracle $ORCL posted mixed earnings results, and the stock cratered nearly 11%.

What's happening next week πŸ‘‡

Next week, we'll be focused on the earnings reports from Micron $MU, Nike $NKE, Carnival $CCL, and Lennar $LEN.

We'll also be watching:

  • The human resources software provider, Paychex $PAYX.
  • The producers of packaged foods, General Mills $GIS and Conagra Brands $CAG.
  • The parent company of restaurants such as LongHorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden, and Cheddar's: Darden Restaurants $DRI.
  • The consultant behemoth, Accenture $ACN.
  • The integrated freight & logistics stock, FedEx $FDX.
  • And more!

There will be plenty of earnings reactions to unpack next week in the Daily Beat. Stay tuned... 

Now, let’s dive into the names at the top of our radar next week.

Here's the setup in MU ahead of Wednesday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

Micron is expected to post $12.82B in revenue and EPS of $3.93 after Wednesday's closing bell.

Following last quarter's earnings report, the stock decisively resolved a prolonged accumulation pattern and has surged since then.

Heading into this week's report, the stock is trading near all-time highs and appears poised to climb further.

As one of the world's largest semiconductor stocks, its earnings reaction will dictate the next move for the industry.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for MU πŸ‘‡

Micron has been punished for four consecutive earnings reports.

However, the post-earnings drift last quarter was the best we've seen in years. This is a significant change in earnings sentiment.

Additionally, the company is growing its top- and bottom-lines like a weed. It's one of the top-performing semiconductor stocks in terms of growth.

If MU delivers another strong beat this week, we expect the market to react positively.

Here's the setup in NKE ahead of Thursday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

Nike is expected to report $12.21B in revenue and EPS of $0.38 after Thursday's closing bell.

After a brutal multi-year downtrend, the stock is trying to carve out a bottom.

Heading into the report, all eyes are on $68.50. This is the volume-weighted average price, anchored to the August peak.

This AVWAP has been serving as resistance over the past few months. If NKE can break above it, we expect a fresh leg higher.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for NKE πŸ‘‡

As we previously mentioned, Nike has been in a massive downtrend for years. Not just technically, but fundamentally, too.

The company's earnings events have consistently punished shareholders.

However, this changed significantly after its June earnings report, when the stock had one of its strongest earnings reactions on record. 

We believe that likely marked the bottom for NKE, and the technicals and fundamentals are in the early stages of a brand-new primary uptrend.

Here's the setup in CCL ahead of Friday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

The market expects Carnival to report revenue of $6.37B and EPS of $0.25 before Friday's opening bell.

Heading into the report, all eyes are on 31.50. This was the peak in early 2021, and it served as resistance after the company's last earnings report.

If and when CCL breaks above this level, the path of least resistance will decisively shift from sideways to higher for the foreseeable future.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for CCL πŸ‘‡

After years of suffering negative post-earnings drift, Carnival has experienced positive post-earnings drift in back-to-back quarters.

We believe this change in earnings sentiment foreshadows new technical and fundamental primary uptrends.

Additionally, in the last two quarters, the company has delivered some of the strongest bottom-line growth in years.

If CCL posts another blockbuster earnings report this week, we expect the market to react positively.

Here's the setup in LEN ahead of Tuesday's earnings report πŸ‘‡

Lennar is expected to post $9B in revenue and EPS of $2.21 after Tuesday's closing bell.

Heading into the report, the bears are trying to put the finishing touches on the right shoulder of a prolonged distribution pattern.

The setup doesn't look good for the bulls...

If and when LEN closes below 103, the path of least resistance will decisively shift from sideways to lower for the foreseeable future.

Here are the past three years of earnings results & reactions for LEN πŸ‘‡

For nine consecutive quarters, Lennar has been punished for reporting earnings. This is the longest beatdown streak in the S&P 500. 

Additionally, conditions haven't improved; they're continuing to deteriorate. This is especially clear when you look at the acceleration of negative earnings growth over the past year.

Until something significantly changes, LEN's fundamentals and technicals will remain firmly in the bears' control.

Happy Sunday!

-The Beat Team


P.S. Last week, Breakout Multiplier jumped into Planet Labs $PL calls as momentum pushed into the highest-beta, most risk-on corners of the market.

On Thursday, the stock jumped 35% after a blockbuster earnings report, giving them the chance to sell half the position for a double and let the rest ride risk-free.

Join Breakout Multiplier and catch the next big winner.