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A Setup for Expansion in 2026

As we head toward the close of the year, commodities are quietly reaching an inflection point that’s easy to miss if you’re not looking at the big picture.

For most of this cycle, leadership has been narrow. Precious metals did the heavy lifting early, ripping higher and establishing clear primary uptrends. 

More recently, base and industrial metals joined the move, confirming that the rotation was real and that it was broadening beneath the surface. 

And we’ve spent a lot of time leaning into that strength, because that’s where the data has consistently pointed us.

Now, something larger may be underway.

The calendar is finally starting to cooperate.

Historically, commodities perform best in the first half of the year and struggle during the back half.

November, in particular, has been a persistent drag on performance over the past several decades. 

December, on the other hand, marks the turning point. From here, the seasonal tailwinds improve meaningfully as we head into the strongest stretch of the commodity calendar.

Seasonality, by itself, is never a reason to put risk on. But when the calendar begins to turn in sync with the technicals, it becomes an important piece of context.

And that’s precisely what we’re seeing now.