Mean Reversion Season

We’ve officially closed the books on 2025, and the scoreboard tells a very clear story.

If you were long precious metals last year, it was a feast. Silver, Platinum,

Palladium, and Gold dominated the commodity complex, and it wasn’t even close. 

These markets rewarded investors who stayed aligned with the primary trend, bought breakouts, and resisted the urge to fade strength. The leadership was persistent, relentless, and unmistakable.

On the other end of the spectrum, the laggards were brutal.

Soft commodities, agricultural products, and the energy complex spent most of 2025 under pressure. 

By the end of the year, several of these markets had been cut in half.

Orange Juice and Cocoa were the poster children for that pain.

But as we turn the calendar to 2026, that extreme dispersion is exactly what has our attention.

Every year, the early weeks of January bring a familiar phenomenon: extended trends begin to unwind. 

Leadership cools off, and laggards start to matter again. 

And markets that spent the previous year crushing latecomers suddenly flip the script. Around here, we call this whipsaw hunting season.

That doesn’t mean abandoning the primary trend framework. It means recognizing when exhaustion is setting in and when mean-reversion setups offer asymmetric opportunities.

Right now, precious metals are very extended. They’ve pulled back sharply off their highs, and momentum has cooled meaningfully after an extraordinary run.