The MicroStrategy Panic Is Bullshit

“Bitcoin is trading BELOW MicroStrategy’s cost basis.”

That’s the headline getting spammed everywhere right now.

Not because it helps you make a better decision, but because it scares people and gets clicks.

The implied story is always the same:

MicroStrategy is doomed.

They’ll be forced to sell Bitcoin.

It’s a ponzi.

Bitcoin goes to zero.

Cue dramatic music.

Let me be very clear: this is bullshit.

Bitcoin trading below MicroStrategy’s cost basis means nothing on its own.

Zero. Zilch. It’s just a tidy little soundbite for journalists who need engagement.

MicroStrategy is not being “forced” to do anything.

They literally raised billions of dollars that’s already ring-fenced to cover liabilities for the next three years. This isn’t a margin account about to get liquidated, it’s corporate finance 101.

Now, to be clear: I am not a MicroStrategy cheerleader.

I called the crash in the stock months ago and told my members to avoid it. Why? Because once iShares Bitcoin ETF $IBIT launched options in November 2024, MicroStrategy lost its monopoly on Bitcoin leverage.

You don’t need a weird proxy anymore. You just go to the options market.

And this isn’t just a MicroStrategy thing.

All these crypto treasury companies are now trading at discounts because investors have little appetite for them. I mean… do we really need dozens of public companies whose entire business model is “we hold Bitcoin”?

Do we even need one?

But my issues with MicroStrategy are still smaller than my issue with the panic porn everywhere right now.

This entire move has been math, not mayhem.

The stock went from trading at 3.5× NAV to roughly 1× NAV. That’s a valuation reset, not a conspiracy to nuke crypto.

And let’s keep some perspective: they own ~3% of the Bitcoin supply.

Not 30%. Not 50%. Three.

I have genuinely never seen this level of alarmism around a stock who's valuation is mean-reverting to where it should be trading.

Which is why, ironically, I’ll probably be buying a decent chunk of it this week.

We’re much closer to the end of this MicroStrategy crash than the beginning, and the story being told right now is nonsense.

Fear sells.

Math doesn’t.

Cheers,

Louis Sykes

Senior Crypto Analyst, All Star Charts