Bull Markets Don’t Die Quietly

Precious metals have been on an absolute tear for nearly two years now, and there’s no point pretending otherwise. 

Since Gold entered a brand-new secular uptrend on March 4, 2024, this market has rewarded those who stayed with the trend and punished those who tried to outsmart it. 

The precious metals futures market has gone vertical, miners have exploded higher, and our individual stock trades have delivered returns that most investors experience only once or twice in a career. 

This has been a banner run by any definition, and there has been no reason to fight it.

At the same time, we’ve been very open about one uncomfortable truth: trends don’t move in straight lines forever. 

The stronger and more persistent a move becomes, the more stretched it eventually gets from its long-term mean. 

And when you step back and look at Gold, Silver, and Platinum relative to their 200-week moving averages, the message has been impossible to ignore.

All three markets have been trading at extreme distances from their historical norms, far beyond anything that can be sustained indefinitely. 

That doesn’t tell us when a pause will happen, but it does tell us to be mentally prepared for one.

Up until Friday, the market gave us no reason to doubt the trend. 

Every dip was absorbed almost instantly, momentum stayed firmly in the bulls’ hands, and upside volatility was doing the heavy lifting. 

Then Friday happened. 

Precious metals were hit hard across the board, and Silver in particular experienced a statistically rare event, printing a ten-sigma move using the 250-day Z-score of the one-day rate of change.