Nvidia $NVDA is about to step into the earnings spotlight.
May 17, 2026
Editor's note: With most of the S&P 500 earnings reports behind us, what has stood out to you so far this earnings season?
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The busiest stretch of earnings season is behind us, but the market is still handing us valuable information.
Investors are still willing to chase the companies tied to AI infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud, networking, and the physical rails behind the next computing cycle.
The leadership is showing up in the earnings reactions and in the stocks making new highs.
And next week gives us another major test as Nvidia $NVDA, Walmart $WMT, and Home Depot $HD step into the earnings spotlight.
One is the king of AI, one is the world's largest retailer, and the other is threatening to breakdown from a massive top.
But before we look ahead, let’s review what we learned last week.
Despite reporting mixed headline results, Akamai Technologies $AKAM rallied 26.6% to its highest level since 2000. The company announced a new $1.8 billion, 7-year cloud infrastructure services contract, by far the largest in company history.
After missing headline expectations across the board, Fidelity National Information Services $FIS cratered 8%. In addition to the terrible earnings reaction, FIS has decisively resolved a textbook distribution pattern and is trading at the lowest level since 2013.
In reaction to a better-than-expected earnings report, Fox Corp. $FOXA soared 7.6% and had its 2nd-best earnings reaction ever. This earnings event put the finishing touches on a textbook multi-year bullish reversal pattern.
Despite reporting better-than-expected headline results, Constellation Energy $CEG fell 1.3%. The company has a good long-term AI power story, but the market isn't rewarding it right now.
Following a big double beat, Qnity Electronics $Q rallied nearly 10% to a new all-time high. The company reported net sales growth of 18% YoY, with adjusted EPS up 33% over the same period. What's more, the management team raised its forward guidance.
After beating the market's headline expectations, Simon Property Group $SPG posted its 4th consecutive positive earnings reaction. The company signed more than 1,100 leases totaling over 4.7 million square feet during the quarter, with about 25% of that leasing volume coming from new deals.
There were no new S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we highlighted a small-cap aerospace and defense stock. Its name is Astronics $ATRO, and it just had a sweet earnings reaction after beating the market's expectations.
ATRO also has a record backlog, and the management team just raised its 2026 revenue guidance to a range that would mark another record year for the company.
Cisco Systems $CSCO delivered a big double beat and rallied 13.4% for its best earnings reaction since 2011. The old .com bubble darling has finally broken out of a 26-year basing pattern.
During the quarter, Cisco grew its total product orders by 35% YoY. Orders from hyperscalers drove this performance.
What's happening next week 👇
Next week brings another packed earnings calendar, with two trillion-dollar-plus market cap stocks reporting.
The top names we're watching next week are Nvidia $NVDA, Walmart $WMT, and Home Depot $HD.
We'll also hear from Baidu $BIDU, Keysight $KEYS, Analog Devices $ADI, Target $TGT, Lowe’s $LOW, Workday $WDAY, and more.
The names are spread across retail, semiconductors, software, housing, consumer discretionary, and AI infrastructure.
Let’s start with Nvidia NVDA, the $5.5 trillion king of the market.
Nvidia reports earnings after Wednesday's closing bell, and the market is looking for revenues of $78.82B and earnings per share of $1.75.
Heading into the report, Nvidia is blasting to new all-time highs. There is nothing bearish about new highs.
Price is the final judge, and right now, price is telling us Nvidia is a leader and an outperformer in this market.
But earnings sentiment is the wrinkle...
Nvidia has been punished for 3 consecutive earnings reports, and the post-earnings drift has been negative for 5 straight quarters.
This tells us that the market's expectations for this stock are incredibly high.
Fundamentally, this is still one of the most ridiculous growth stories in public markets.
Last quarter, Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue, up 65% YoY, while Data Center revenue surged 75% over the same period.
In other words, the AI infrastructure story is not slowing down.
Nvidia's Data Center business has scaled nearly 13-fold since the emergence of ChatGPT, and there's no sign of it slowing down soon.
The fundamentals and technicals remain strong, but we want to see this confirmed by a shift in NVDA's earnings sentiment.
Next is Walmart $WMT, the trillion-dollar discount retail giant, which is expected to report revenues of $174.81B and earnings per share of $0.66 before Thursday's opening bell.
Heading into the report, Walmart is pressing against the upper bound of a textbook accumulation pattern that has been forming over the past few months.
If buyers can push WMT through resistance after earnings, we could see a clean gap-n-go move to new all-time highs.
The line to clear is $134. Above there, WMT's path of least resistance will shift from sideways to higher for the foreseeable future.
Last quarter, Walmart reported top-line growth of 6.6% YoY and bottom-line growth of 12.1% over the same period.
Global e-commerce sales grew 24%, global advertising grew 37%, membership fee revenue grew 15.1%, and operating income grew more than twice as fast as sales.
That is exactly the kind of operating leverage investors want to see from a mega-cap retailer.
The company is becoming a digital commerce, logistics, advertising, membership, and AI-enabled retail platform.
This sounds great, but the earnings scorecard is not perfect.
Despite accelerating revenue and earnings growth, Walmart has been punished for 4 of its last 5 earnings events.
This shows that WMT has struggled to translate good reports into sustained upside.
And if shareholders get punished again, WMT probably needs more time in the penalty box.
But if Walmart gives the market what it wants, this could be the report that resolves the consolidation and sends the stock to fresh all-time highs.
Finally, let’s talk about Home Depot $HD, the most vulnerable setup next week.
Home Depot reports before Tuesday's opening bell, and the market is looking for revenues of $41.60B and earnings per share of $3.41.
For years, Home Depot has respected an upward-sloping support line that repeatedly stopped declines and kept the longer-term structure intact.
Now the stock is threatening to break that level while sitting at a new 52-week low.
And if HD holds below $300, downside momentum could accelerate quickly.
The fundamental backdrop is not helping either.
Last quarter, Home Depot reported a nearly 4% YoY revenue decline and a nearly 10% decline in earnings over the same period.
And the root cause of this is ongoing consumer weakness and housing pressure.
To be fair, the business is not falling apart...
Management expects fiscal 2026 sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of flat to 4%.
But “not falling apart" isn't good enough.
Unless HD reports significantly better-than-expected news, we expect shareholders to be punished for Tuesday's earnings report.
Recently, we've been making a lot of portfolio moves at the Premium Beat Report as earnings season has provided us with a bunch of new signals.
If you want access to our next trade, join our growing community at the Premium Beat Report.
Thank you for reading,
-The Beat Team
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