Carnival’s recovery story is still alive, but it's still stuck below resistance.
June 24, 2026
Carnival $CCL is one of the great reopening stories of the past few years.
The company nearly died during COVID, survived one of the ugliest balance sheet events in modern travel history, and then spent the next several years repairing the business.
At the same time, Americans kept proving they would rather spend money on experiences than sit at home.
Cruises came roaring back, and Carnival slowly worked its way from the depths of the 2022 bear market into one of the more compelling recovery patterns in consumer discretionary.
But recovery stories still need confirmation, and on Tuesday, Carnival didn't give it to us.
We previewed CCL in Sunday’s Weekly Beat because the setup was obvious.
For years, CCL has been stuck below $31.50. This level marks the prior cycle peak and the level at which every breakout attempt has failed so far.
Above $31.50, the long-term base-on-base structure would be complete, and a brand-new primary uptrend would be underway.
Below $31.50, the stock is still absorbing overhead supply and needs more time.
And as a result, the stock fell 4.9%, marking its worst earnings reaction since Q3 2023, and price once again failed at the exact level we were watching.
Yesterday's failure doesn't make the long-term setup bearish, and it certainly does not erase the recovery story.
But it does tell us the stock is not ready to break out yet.
The supply around $31.50 remains, and buyers haven't shown enough strength to overwhelm it.
The frustrating part is that the business is still doing a lot right.
Carnival delivered another record quarter, with record second-quarter revenue, net yields, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, and customer deposits.
Management said customer deposits reached an all-time high of $9 billion, while the company is already 93% booked for the year, with less inventory remaining for sale than last year.
This isn't a broken business, but there are problems on the earnings scorecard.
Revenue growth slowed from 6.1% last quarter to 5.3% this quarter.
EPS growth slowed even more dramatically, falling from roughly 54% to 17%.
That's still growth, but when a stock is sitting directly beneath a multi-year breakout level, “still growing” isn't enough.
The market wanted a reason to force the stock through $31.50, and instead it got mixed headline results with decelerating growth.
The other issue is earnings sentiment.
Carnival has now fallen after back-to-back earnings reports, and the pattern remains inconsistent.
That isn't the strong earnings sentiment profile we see in the best leadership stocks.
But there's one important nuance here.
Even though Carnival has fallen after each of its last two reports, both reactions produced positive reaction scores.
That means the stock was down on the day, but it still held up better than the broader market would suggest, given the conditions around those reports.
So the message isn't as bearish as the headline reaction looks.
The company is producing record results, and bookings for the remainder of 2026 are ahead of last year at historically high prices.
At the same time, the stock failed at $31.50 again, revenue and EPS growth both slowed sequentially, and earnings sentiment has not yet become a consistent tailwind.
Carnival is a great setup, it's just not a trade yet.
At the Beat Report, we don't buy stocks just because we like the story.
We want the technicals, fundamentals, and earnings sentiment all pointing in the same direction.
With CCL, the technicals are close but not confirmed.
The fundamentals are good, but the growth rate just cooled off.
Earnings sentiment is improving underneath the surface, but it's still not clean enough.
So until CCL reclaims $31.50, there's nothing to do with this stock.
For nearly two and a half hours, the Beat Team pitched its highest-conviction trade ideas and debated them live with Steve Strazza in front of our members.
Steve also pitched a consumer discretionary stock that we think could be one of the next big winners from here.
If you want access to the full meeting, the trade ideas, and our next alerts, join The Beat Report today.
Thank you for your loyal readership,
-The Beat Team
Editor's Note: The strongest signal in market seasonality isn't when the tape follows the pattern; it's when it refuses to.
Steve Strazza is going live Thursday to explain what the current setup is telling him heading into the back half of a midterm year, and how he trades momentum like this.
