Every weekend it seems like we’re handed a brand new narrative.
Friday, we’re told the war is escalating. The headlines scream that the Strait of Hormuz is under threat, airstrikes are expanding, and geopolitical risk is back. By Sunday night, the tone changes. Suddenly the messaging shifts toward deescalation, backchannel negotiations, and assurances that shipping lanes remain open.
The story changes.
The charts rarely do.
That’s why I continue to tell our members to spend less time trading headlines and more time trading price.
The first chart is our long term view of TLT, the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
We’ve been positioned short bonds because the bigger trend hasn’t changed. After years of lower highs and lower lows, we’re now seeing another reversal candle develop near major support. Until price proves otherwise, higher long term interest rates remain the dominant trend.
That matters because rising yields don’t happen in a vacuum. They typically accompany stronger nominal growth, persistent inflation, and continued leadership from hard assets.
The second chart tells the same story from a different angle.
Energy continues to outperform technology.
For years investors couldn’t buy enough AI, software, and mega cap tech. Today, money continues rotating toward companies producing the commodities the world actually consumes. This ratio has reached another major support level. If energy begins another leg of outperformance from here, it would fit perfectly with the broader macro environment we’ve been discussing for months.
Notice what none of these charts require.
They don’t require you to predict whether politicians escalate or deescalate a conflict over the weekend.
They don’t require you to know the next diplomatic headline.
They don’t require you to guess what cable television will be talking about tomorrow morning.
Every Friday the world seems ready for World War III. By Sunday evening everyone is talking about negotiations. Then the cycle repeats.
Meanwhile, the market keeps rewarding the same themes.
Higher rates.
Strong reflationary sectors.
Weak long duration bonds.
That’s where our focus remains.
The market has a way of filtering through the noise long before the news catches up. Our job isn’t to have the best political opinion. It isn’t to predict military strategy. It isn’t even to be right about every headline.
Our job is much simpler.
Follow the trend.
Manage risk.
Respect price.
Everything else is just noise.
Commodity investors know this better than most.
The theme can be right for years, and the trade can still test your patience the whole way.
Copper can have the best supply story on the board. Uranium can have the strongest long-term setup. Energy can be breaking out of a multi-year base.
But if the market is not rewarding risk yet, even the right commodity trade can sit there, chop around, or fail before the real move begins.
That is where Grant Hawkridge starts.
Before he buys anything, he checks one 0-to-100 number to see whether the market is paying him to take risk or charging him for it.
Only then does he follow the money into the strongest sectors, groups, and stocks showing real leadership.
On Wednesday, July 15 at 8PM ET, Grant is walking through the full process live, including the documented WDC trade that paid 645.6%.
If you are watching copper, uranium, energy, miners, or the next leg of the resource cycle, this is the market filter worth seeing.
Supercycle Report highlights the breakout setups, rotations, and technical signals shaping metals markets — giving traders an edge in gold, silver, and commodities.
