One of my favorite tells for global risk appetite doesn’t come from bonds, credit spreads, or even the Nasdaq.
It comes from an obscure FX cross almost nobody trades: the Israeli Shekel (ILS/USD).
Israel’s economy is one that closely mirrors the stocks we consider "speculative growth”. It’s one built on fintech, software, and biotech.
As such, the Shekel trades off of the same drivers as something like Cathie Wood’s $ARKK ETF.
One won’t move without the other. It’s the same trade.
We were early to point this out when the Shekel broke out ahead of ARKK/SPY months in advance.
It flashed “risk-on” well ahead of the crowd. We flagged it then, and it’s been paying ever since.
Now it’s time to revisit.
Despite the headlines, despite the war, despite every reason the narrative says it shouldn’t work—the Shekel broke out, retested, and ripped.
Now, after some consolidation above the breakout level, both of these trades look ready for another wave higher:
This time around, it’s speculative growth stocks that have led the way.
Fintech, quantum, space, drones, nuclear. All the “ARKKy” momentum trades are screaming higher.
A breakout in the ILS/USD cross above 0.3015 would serve as confirmation.
The message is simple: the Shekel remains one of the clearest indicators of risk appetite for speculative growth. And right now, it’s still pointing higher.
Steve’s been on fire with this theme — 640% in $QUBT calls, nearly 1,500% in $RGTI, doubles in $RKLB and $ASTS, and just today, 194% in $SMR calls in one day.
