Crypto has felt heavy for months. Slow exits from bases, failed breakouts, and sloppy leadership throughout.
Bitcoin’s no exception, currently on pace for its fourth-worst year ever (the other years being: 2014, 2018, 2022—all bear-market years for the asset class).
And the nuance is when we look at digital gold versus other major fiats. It’s doing worse.
In fact, if we price it in a basket of European currencies, Bitcoin never decisively took out last year’s highs.
So the breakout we had this summer proved to not be a risk-on message for crypto, but a soft-dollar message.
Tactically, BTC/USD can still fail this rounded top and hold the shelf. But if Bitcoin is really going to work, it has to work across all fiats, not just against one. That’s table stakes for a high-beta, high-volatility instrument. Strength should be broad and confirmed, not isolated.
Seasonally speaking, the last three months of the year are bullish the entire crypto asset class. But we have to see it first.
If the next big leg is coming, it’ll show up everywhere—not just in dollar terms.
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