The US Dollar Index $DXY is approaching a make-or-break level.
We’ve been watching this chart closely for months. After spending most of the year grinding lower, the dollar finally started to lose downside momentum — setting the stage for a countertrend rally.
Now, DXY is testing our line in the sand: the COVID-anchored VWAP around 100.
This level has been a key battleground for years — flipping between support and resistance every time price gets here.
If price can reclaim and hold above, it would open the door for further strength ahead.
Under that scenario, equities — especially overseas — could start to face some headwinds.
If the dollar rolls over again, though, the weak-dollar regime stays firmly in place — and it won’t pose much of a threat to global risk assets.
We’re not front-running the outcome. We’re watching our levels.
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