November marks the beginning of the best three-month period of the year for stocks and a brand-new NBA season. Moreover, the sportsbooks have priced in my local OKC Thunder as the Western Conference champions.

It's a fantastic time to be alive.

Now is also a great time to take a step back and assess the underlying trends.

Earlier this year, we outlined our Fab 5 Charts for a 2024 equity bull market. 

One of the five key groups we selected was homebuilders, which have been on an absolute tear:

Despite bond yields and dollars screaming higher and reaching overbought conditions, stocks and precious metals rallied during what is historically the worst time of the year. 

During a bad seasonal period, junior gold and silver mining stocks had their best week since 2020, and silver printed fresh multi-year highs.

The bulls' ability to maintain control during a historically weak period speaks to the strength and resilience of this market.

Let's talk about the demand we're seeing for precious metals around the world and a few of our favorite trade ideas right now:

Each year, Americans buy over 600 million pounds of candy and eat over 1 pound each for Halloween.

It's a lot...

But are there opportunities to profit from Americans ritualistically eating way too much candy? You betcha!

Let's talk about it.

After a historic 190% run earlier this year, cocoa futures have formed a textbook consolidation pattern:

In 2015 I was an entrepreneur, had my last knee surgery, and was still riding professionally from time to time—until my body finally gave out. 

I was also on the verge of starting my own fund while working for another one. 

In other words, I was busy.

My trading signals back then were based on 10-month highs which reflects how busy I was. 

We saw a new 10-month high by the end of the year, and that marked the beginning of one of the most legendary trends in financial history. 

Digital gold has churned sideways at its prior cycle high, while gold and risk assets have enjoyed a sweet leg higher over the last half-year.

It would be strange for this bull market cycle to end without Bitcoin enjoying a blue-sky breakout.

So, if it's a bull market, shouldn't Bitcoin and friends be participating?

Yes. We're betting that crypto is about to reach escape velocity and have an epic catch up.

Let's talk about it:

Uranium stocks have been screaming higher and show no signs of slowing down.

As the AI Revolution demands more and more power, big technology companies are turning to nuclear energy.

The market is sending a very clear message... we (as investors) need to increase our exposure to uranium stocks.

Check out the recent performance from uranium stocks:

Earlier this year we wrote about platinum futures gearing up for a breakout as gold futures were printing fresh all-time highs.

So far the trade has been a dud as the price action has been a rangebound mess.

But the former powerhouse is setting up for us to take another swing at it.

Let's talk about the little silver:

It has been two-years since the S&P 500 bottomed in October 2022 and stocks began a new bull market. 

During this time, many sectors and industry groups have enjoyed tremendous uptrends while materials stocks have gone sideways.

But materials stocks are starting to look interesting...

The SPDR Materials Sector ETF $XLB is making new all-time highs:

A couple of weeks ago, we talked about Silver futures attempting to emerge from a multi-year accumulation pattern and potentially retesting the former all-time high.

Last week,  Silver made a new multi-decade high in absolute terms and broke a multi-year downtrend line relative to Gold. 

And if the 47th element is about to blast off, we should look closer at the Junior Silver Miners.

But first, check out this chart of the Silver/Gold ratio:

Last week, we discussed China and Gold futures as potential catalysts for resolving a multi-decade basing pattern in Dr. Copper.

If we're in an environment where Copper futures are printing fresh all-time highs, then we should spend some time identifying opportunities in the equities market that benefit from rising base and industrial metal prices globally.

Over the last 6-months, the Steel $SLX, Copper $COPX, and Metals and Mining $XME ETFs have underperformed the S&P 500:

Despite the recent volatility, gold continues its steady ascent, unaffected by the broader market noise. 

As seasonals have shifted and new leadership has come and gone this year, gold remains resilient, moving through market regimes with ease.

Whether stocks rally or risk-off sentiment prevails, gold thrives. The yellow metal has been red-hot all year.

In these times, the saying goes, "there is no fever like gold fever." 

But, is there any evidence of this kind of euphoria among investors yet?

While the COT report suggests sentiment may be overstretched, let’s talk about what we’re seeing on the ground.

There’s little buzz about gold in the financial media. No bold predictions of $10K gold on magazine covers, no headlines touting it as the ultimate safe haven in an impending crisis—signals that often show up at market tops. We’re just not seeing it.

For context, in 2011, fears of currency depreciation were rampant. The covers of TIME magazine and Smart Money allow us to remember this moment. They came right at the top.

Large Speculators haven't owned this much Gold since 2020. We have the data.

In precious metal bull markets, it's perfectly normal for Commercial Hedgers to offset their physical positions by shorting the underlying futures contracts.

We also tend to see the Speculators build massive net-long positions.

Check out the extreme Commercial Hedger net-short position in Gold and Silver futures:

This is as extreme as it gets. So, with the positioning so stretched, who is left to buy?