I do not recommend attempting to pick bottoms and tops. It can be a dangerous game. 

Yes, when you occasionally get one right you can make a killing. But we also put ourselves at risk at getting killed. Especially fading short squeezes, and double especially if you're doing it via getting short common stock.

Smart options traders, however, have an advantage here. We can define our risks precisely. We're going to take advantage of this feature with today's trade, a bet on the unexpected.

We had a delta-neutral options position on the books that we stopped out of this week. Thankfully, it was not a big loss. It felt like the right idea, but the wrong instrument.

So today's trade is a similar trade in a stock from the same sector. We're going to take advantage of a possible continued consolidation and get out before their next earnings event.

Perhaps this is just my own personal Waterloo, but there seems to be history of market turbulence whenever I travel and am away from my main trading station.

Next week will be a travel week for me. I'll be attending Stocktoberfest in Coronado Island, back home for one day in the middle of the week, then back on the road heading to Seattle. And this being October, when "surprises" seem most often to occur, I'm a little on edge about my mostly long-leaning portfolio.

So today's trade is a simple bearish bet in a weak name that may offer some cushion if things do get slippery next week.

Last week, I wrote to you about how winning is hard -- because holding out for large wins is easily the hardest thing we attempt to do as traders. Sitting through pullbacks against the direction of our trade is so. damn. hard.

I highlighted a trade we currently have on $CM. It was pulling back and testing the mettle of anyone long -- including me. Here's where it was at the time:

During the gold rush of the 1800's, there were fortunes made by some who were digging for and discovering gold.

But the REAL money was made by the entrepreneurs who were selling the pics and shovels to those gold speculators.

Along this similar train of thought, there are more than just semiconductor manufacturers that are going to benefit from the massive amount of investment done in the Artificial Intelligence space.

Today's trade is a year-long bet in one area that is starting to get attention by the AI players.

On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discussed the two different markets we are each experiencing. He's experiencing one of great breakouts and follow-through. I'm experiencing one of frustration.

Same stock market, different results. That is information. We get into it.

This bull market appears to be on the verge of another leg higher and it might be led by the financials. We both liked the idea of finding alpha down the cap scale in smaller regional banks to participate.

Here's a daily chart of U.S. Bancorp $USB:

...the higher in space.

Today's trade is in household name that is emerging from a 3-year base and on the verge of new all-time highs.

Due to earnings on the horizon, we'll be utilizing a spread to keep our costs in check and take advantage of some relative high options premium in out-of-the-money calls.

This trade gets classified as a "Hard Trade."

The stock has had a strong runup in recent weeks. Some traders have a hard time buying stocks making highs.

I don't.

But with implied volatility relatively cheap right now in this stock, an earnings event on the horizon, and a potential "two-hundred-dollar-roll" looming ahead, this feels like the right time to take a defined risk shot.

As I've discussed recently, earnings season is quickly approaching. And with it comes risks and opportunities.

For today's trade, I'm going to leverage elevated options premiums in a nearby expiration to get a better net cost on the real call options I'd like to own.

And I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get in at attractive prices and a nearby exit if I'm wrong.

Let's all raise our glasses for a toast to the outperformers of this bull market.

Ok, now let's get to work finding stocks setting up that will likely catch the next wave of rotating capital flows.

Today's trade is in a name that is slowly becoming a fixture at just about every eating establishment near me, and likely you too.

Here's a one-year chart of Toast Inc, $TOST:

Earnings season is closing in. And the election is right behind it. Surely land mines will be discovered all over the place. There is risk.

So any directional bets I place over the coming weeks will be of a defined-risk nature.

But, where there is risk, there is opportunity. We'll get paid when we're right, perhaps handsomely so.

That is why it is worth wading into the rising rivers here to take some shots while keeping our downsides in check.