Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our macro universe was negative this week as 91% of our list closed lower with a median return of -4.00%.
The Volatility Index $VIX was the winner again, closing with a 13.76% gain.
Meanwhile, the biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -9.60%.
There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
A Quarter Century of Sideways
We like to use the Value Line Geometric Index as a representation of how the average, or median stock is making out. While the S&P might be a better illustration of the performance of an average portfolio, the Value Line shows us the performance of the average stock.
With prices cratering back beneath key prior-cycle highs, it’s not painting a very bullish picture for the broader market. These dot-com bubble and financial crisis highs ~510 are as important as any level in the stock market right now. If we’re below there, downside risks are elevated, and we’re on the sidelines. The fact that the median stock price has made zero progress since its 1998 peak almost 25-years ago tells you all you need to know about the damage the overall market has already endured. As long as VLG is below these former highs, we want to be prepared for more to come.
Premiums remain elevated in the options market as volatility persists and confusion among market participants reigns supreme.
We sold a delta neutral spread on Friday to take advantage of this environment. Today's trade will also be a credit spread, however, this time we will be taking on some bearish directional exposure to counterbalance some of our long exposure.
Since then, we've seen equity markets make a decisive move to the lows, while currency markets have acted in spectacular fashion. The US dollar continues to strengthen, while the UK pound sterling printed at new all-time lows.
As far as risk markets are concerned, this is a rather treacherous tape, and caution is still advised over more substantial time frames.
Much of our job as technical analysts is to discover pieces that don't conform to the regular puzzle.
What's caught us by surprise is the resiliency of crypto markets in the face of this risk-off action. Bitcoin continues to defend its critical 18,000 support level even in the face of equity markets selling off.
Furthermore, our breadth metrics suggest that altcoins have been holding up better than individual equities.
These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday October 3rd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
I know the market’s ugly right now. Risk assets are getting crushed across the board.
But, believe it or not, greener pastures do exist in this market.
And, on days like these, I choose to focus on areas that aren’t free-falling into the fiery depths of hell.
Last week, I discussed the relative strength of the less economically sensitive grain complex. These contracts are more defensive in nature and are currently escaping the broad selling pressure.
That’s a relief!
When it comes to today’s trade ideas, I’m sticking to the individual contracts with the highest volume heading into the fall. Those are the charts and levels of the most importance.
Do the levels on the continuation charts come into consideration?
Absolutely!
Premium members can reference our Commodity Chartbook below for our structural outlook and reach out at info@allstarcharts.com with further questions.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that; click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.