We are constantly analyzing market breadth. We do this not just for insight into the strength of the current trend but also because it helps us identify key turning points. We outlined a variety of deteriorating breadth measures in a post last month to support our bearish outlook on stocks, and the signal turned out to be quite timely as the market collapsed soon after.
With the market now severely oversold amid one of the swiftest bear markets in history, we're looking to breadth measures once again for signs of a tradeable low.
This week we've outlined what we need to see from breadth, the Nifty 50 & Bank Index, and Copper in order to get long Indian stocks from any sort of intermediate or long-term perspective.
Although we've not seen those developments yet, US Stocks (S&P 500) is back above its December lows and other foreign indexes have started to catch a bid in the near-term. This subtle improvement is suggesting some trade opportunities could develop on the long side for those who hold positions for a few days to a week or two.
As we look for signs of a tradeable low in Equities, we're not only looking at breadth and the stock market's leaders, we're also looking to the Commodity market for a signal of what's to come.
Let's get into why Copper needs to be on your radar.
As we look for signs of a tradeable low in Equities, we're not only looking at breadth and the stock market's leaders, we're also looking to the Commodity market for a signal of what's to come.
Let's get into why Copper needs to be on your radar.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Do you see how stocks are making new lows? That's a characteristic of downtrends, not uptrends. We first want to identify what type of market environment we're in, and then decide which tools we're going to use to help us profit and manage risk.
Something interesting about the current market is that a lot of stocks are making new lows. Most stocks are. But there are a select few that decided they were going to make new highs instead. We call that Relative Strength. You sometimes hear people say how they're "Bucking the trend". This is that.
Our upside target in Zoom Video $ZM was hit today. That was a quick 40% gain. One for the good guys!
But which one is next? I think it's Docusign $DOCU. The stock is ripping to all-time highs relative to S&Ps and prices have been consolidating nicely. I think the next move is higher.
Last week we started to see a few momentum and breadth divergences form in Indian stocks, however, they've not yet been confirmed by price.
In this post, we're going to outline what price level in the Nifty 500 would confirm them, what confirmation would mean for our intermediate-term outlook, and how we're managing risk in both scenarios.
Have you noticed how stocks keep making lower lows and lower highs? We call those downtrends.
There's an important reason why I bring this up. There is a much higher likelihood for markets to continue in the direction they're heading in, than for them to just reverse course and start to move in the opposite direction. This is true for both uptrends and downtrends.
We live in an interesting world of double standards. When stocks are going up and "irresponsible" shorts are getting squeezed, no one feels bad for them. In fact, short sellers get ridiculed for "being so stupid" (see: $TSLA last year). But when longs are getting killed for being irresponsible, we're supposed to feel bad for them right? That's how this works?
I know there are certain perceptions about the intentions of shorts betting on a company failing vs shareholders betting on a company's growth. Fine. But seriously, is there a difference at the end of the day. It's really just math for most of us. I think we really need to think about these things. I don't have the answers, but I certainly question the hypocrisy.
Here's what this nice gentleman on the internet had...