From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The most important crop report of the year has hit.

Yes, it’s generated quite the buzz over the past few weeks, as grain markets ripped higher in anticipation.

Some observers even speculated that Friday’s report was the most important in the history of the agrarian economy.

So let’s round down, be conservative, and call it the most important crop report in 5,000 years.

Seriously, though, it was a big deal, as acreage estimates for soybeans represent the largest miss since the report's inception – or, like, ever, in history. 

More importantly for traders and investors, the report brought increased volatility.

If you’re like me and prefer to sit out these kinds of days, you’re patiently waiting for the dust to settle. 

Meanwhile, if you’re at all put off by the volatility of these futures contracts, I have a vehicle that promises a much smoother ride…

Let’s talk about Archer Daniels Midland $ADM, “supermarket to the world.”

The $41B commodity behemoth has more than 100 years of experience in the grain markets.

And, as JC pointed out on...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw some big gaps for the indices all around today.

It's hard to take trades when it's like this, as the move in most stocks came overnight.

If it can't rally in this market, what happens if the market pauses or pulls back?

I was looking for a good short exposure candidate to balance out my portfolio a little bit and I came across this bearish idea the team published this week that makes a lot of sense for a quick hit if we get it right.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Today’s Hot List is a short one.

Pierce Norton, the president and CEO of ONEOK Inc $OKE, filed a Form 4 revealing a purchase of the oil and gas stock.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Fourth of July weekend!

Monday is an early close for the market, and today is month-end, quarter-end, and options expiration. $SPY is right into the gap I spoke about all week at 438.97.

Let's see how its holds today.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Messy, messy, messy.

If there’s one market description I’ve grown tired of more than others – it’s "messy." It’s my pain trade. 

Interest rates, the US dollar, crude oil, gold – you name it! – all are trendless and range-bound.

One of our viewers during yesterday’s live What the FICC? episode offered up an alternative description: ambiguous. I like it!

But there’s one area of the fixed-income, commodity, and currency landscape poised to break free from this ambiguity…

US real yields!

Check out the US five-year real yield challenging a shelf of former highs:

Yes, we’re talking about yields. But I see a potential bullish continuation pattern. 

Remember, we like buying...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a very mixed market today, with a lot of weakness.

$DIA and $IWM led the pack.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The most significant transaction on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett just bought an additional 2,138,250 shares in Occidental Petroleum Corp $OXY. This is his first purchase in almost a month.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I mentioned yesterday in the Live Trading Room that $SPY can head into its gap at 438.97 this week.

The market is happy because all banks passed their stress tests.

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.

We saw it at the beginning of the year as the laggards caught up to the leaders.

Remember, in the back half of last year, almost everything was working, EXCEPT large-cap growth stocks.

What are the best performers this year? Large-cap growth stocks.

More recently, we've seen rotation into Small-caps and Industrial stocks that were the underperformers in the early part of 2023.

This is perfectly normal behavior for bull markets.

In bear markets you see the opposite. In bear markets, the leaders tend to catch down to the laggards.

This is definitely not that.

So what's the bet?