From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Rules Need Application To Be Useful

Market legend Marty Zweig was known for his investing rules. The first among them addressed the importance of staying in harmony with the underlying trend in the market. Good rules are great guides - we ignore them to our own peril. 

Why It Matters: Rules need to be more than trite and convenient sayings. But given that we each have our own temperament and time frames, our individual applications will likely vary. For me, recognizing that the trend is my friend and not fighting the tape means respecting the direction of the long-term trend in the S&P 500 and the advance/decline line based on net new highs for the NYSE + NASDAQ. All of the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past two decades have come when at least one of those is rising. Right now, as has been the case almost continuously since February, they are both falling. That is not a tape I want to fight.   

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw a lot of movement in the indices today.

The $SPX hit resistance near the 50-day moving average around 3,800 and reversed lower but then rallied into the close. 

We can't argue with price.

And price continues to tell us the Energy bull market still has legs.

Today's trade is a case in point where trading action today announced a declaration that an old-school oil services name wants to continue climbing higher.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our November 4, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The lengths that grown adults will go to justify their reckless behavior continues impress.

One of the classic misnomers that you'll hear out there, especially these days, is: "Don't Fight The Fed"

How many times do you hear these fools say it?

They think they sound smart. They think they're clever.

They pretend to be historians, but all they're proving is that they're lazy, wrong and enjoy embarrassing themselves in front of everyone.

If you're going to quote the great Marty Zweig, the least you can do is quote him correctly.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are an absolute dumpster fire. 

Everyone knows fixed income is having one of its worst years on record. And, from the looks of it, we’ll all be dragging our Christmas trees to the curb before US Treasuries stage a miraculous comeback. 

Don’t get me wrong. I believe these safe haven assets will dig in and catch higher –  eventually. There’s just no sign of it happening any time soon.

Instead of focusing on the disappointing performance of bonds, let’s turn our attention to its relative trends against other major asset classes – stocks and commodities.

Here’s the commodities versus bonds ratio using the CRB Commodity Index and the 30-year Treasury bond futures:

The commodity/bond ratio completed a bearish to bullish trend reversal last year after violating a decade-long downtrend.

This major intermarket shift caught many off-guard, as 12 years of underperformance led the industry to...

The most significant insider transaction on today's list comes in a 13D from Carl Icahn.

Icahn reported a new position in the mid-cap packaging and container stock, Crown Holdings $CCK.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have big data out at 8:30 a.m. ET this morning.

As I write, the futures are up. Let's hope they stay that way. 

The concept of “Tilt” is often discussed when things have gone awry. It’s usually associated with poor risk management and sloppy trading that has led to larger-than-expected losses.

You can no doubt find endless stories of traders in every timeframe who have gone on tilt and proceeded to wreck their month, their capital, and sometimes even their careers.

We’ve all experienced some degree of this in our own trading. It comes with the territory. It takes a rare human who possesses the mental fortitude to stay completely focused no matter what’s happening to their portfolio. Those people are out there – but they’re hard to find.

The downsides of going on tilt when our trades or strategies aren’t working out are fairly obvious.

But we rarely talk about when we go on tilt with a winning position!

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market did bounce from the lows at $SPX 3,700, but it was lackluster.

In order for this market to head back up hill, the SPX would have to get above 3,750 and hold it for a move to 3,775.