This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in...
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Finding Support with Fibonacci
US equities appear to be regaining ground after giving back some of their gains from this summer. Following the corrective action of the last few weeks, the Nasdaq 100 ETF has finally found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-to-August advance. These levels represent a logical place for demand to show up and halt prices from falling further. We’re watching closely to see what kind of follow-through we get in the coming days. If this was really the bottom, we should see a higher high in the near future. On the other hand, a break below 294 would signal increased downside risk and likely lead to a retest of the June lows. From a tactical standpoint, this is our line in the sand for the Nasdaq 100.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
This week, our macro universe was positive as 74% of our list closed higher with a median return of 2.66%.
The S&P High Beta $SPHB was the top performer this week, closing with a 6.34% gain.
The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -10.52%.
There was a 3% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 9%.
To close the week, we saw a remarkable rally that drove Bitcoin prices up more than 10%. This was the largest single-day gain going back to February 28.
This came after Bitcoin tested the shelf of support near 19,000, while equity markets bounced on an important inflection point.
In last week's letter, we pointed out that buyers needed to step up and defend these levels, which they clearly have.
The stock we're looking at this week is part of the Industrial Manufacturing sector. Let's examine which name has made it to our scan this time. Also, check out our latest post on Industrial Manufacturing stocks paving the way for the next leg of the rally!
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
The Industrial sector has been on our radar throughout this year. The Nifty 500 peaked in October 2021, whereas stocks from the industrial sector continued to show resilience. Our outperformers scan list is full of industrial stocks.
Our Custom ASC Industrial Index is making a new all-time high on an absolute and a relative basis. We are looking for opportunities to add based on price breaking above the consolidating or options to add within an ongoing bullish uptrend. Finally, we'll look into potential multi-year breakouts.
In this post, we'll update the trade ideas from the last post and add a few new actionable setups that look attractive on the long side for the next few weeks and months.