From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Put/call ratios are high, there are more bulls than bears on both the AAII and II surveys (a rarity over the past decade) and active investment managers have slashed equity exposure. If the conditions that have been in place since the Financial Crisis lows (which occurred this week in 2009) are still in place, it is hard to argue that sentiment is not a meaningful tailwind for equities and is fuel for a rally. Two cautions: Sentiment is a condition, but rarely a catalyst. This means price action needs to improve to bring bulls back on board. But more significantly, there is still evidence that the speculative unwind that began last year is still ongoing and strategic positioning indicators show little improvement that would indicate longer-term risks are subsiding. Those get exacerbated as the Fed starts to raise interest rates and withdraw liquidity.        

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Liquidity-Fueled Speculation Now Unwinding

Fed rate cuts in 2019 primed the...

I'm sounding like a broken record about elevated options premiums and my desire to be a net seller of options, and for good reason: $VIX continues to hang tight in the 30's. And when volatility is this high, it tends to favor the premium sellers. Not every time, but most of the time.

So during our morning Analyst meeting, me and the team were kicking ideas around for putting an options trade on today. And while there are some tempting candidates for putting delta-neutral credit spreads on -- we all coalesced around the idea of leveraging the high prices of put options here into a long position in Nucor Corp $NUE:

We’re probably not going to follow Nancy Pelosi into American Express $AXP or PayPal $PYPL.

And Warren Buffett’s recent purchase of a large stake in Occidental Petroleum $OXY doesn’t necessarily indicate an opportunity for us, either.

Moves by these big names are just good information.

Commodities have been at the center of our analysis for over a year now. There have been times when base metals have done well. And here have been times when agri commodities have done well. But every single time, precious metals stayed out of it.

Precious metals have been the worst place to be in over the past one and a half years. But it looks as though things are about to change.

Why?

Gold and Silver seem to be interested in jumping on the bullish bandwagon. Are they there yet? Let's take a look!

Precious metals have been the worst place to be in for the longest time. But with commodities across the globe taking off, precious metals finally got the memo. The cargo is on the move, folks!

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

US dollar strength is broadening as global currencies lose critical levels against it.

Last week, we outlined crucial support levels in the EUR/USD pair. Those levels have since given way, as sellers have taken control of this major forex cross.

Today, we’re going to highlight two other USD pairs that recently sliced through key levels, further paving a path of least resistance that favors the US dollar.

First up is the British pound, GBP/USD:

The pound has been carving out a distribution pattern for the past year.

Yesterday, it completed that pattern by violating a key level of former resistance turned support found at the 2021 lows around 1.32.

Momentum is also registering overbought conditions, confirming the recent breakdown.

As long as it’s below those former lows, we...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We really hate to sound like a broken record, but we want to be downright obnoxious in hammering this down.

There's no edge in pushing longs right now, seriously.

You can try all you want. But all you're doing is asking to get whipsawed and chopped up.

Scroll down to download this week's chart deck.

It's a tale as old as time, traders pushing their opinions onto the market and not adapting their approach for different environments.

Trend-following strategies worked great in 2020 and after the summer bottom last year.

But now? Not so much.

Forget about headlines, opinions, or gossip. It's all noise.

Money is the only thing that moves markets. Follow money flow.

And what's the tape saying?

Downtrends and ranges everywhere. That's the tale for not just crypto, but macro too.

This is ugly isn't it?

Below all that support from last year near 350, and I can't see the argument for a long position:

This is a mess at best. A downtrend at worst.

We don’t typically track small transactions by members of Congress, those in the $1,000-to-$15,000 range.

But a recent move by Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, a Republican from Georgia, is worth noting.

Nickel is making an explosive move as we speak and it is important to address it as soon as we can.

Commodities are picking up pace everywhere, across the globe and this move has been in the pipes for a while.

So what are the levels that we're tracking on this commodity? Check it out below.