There's a time to be aggressive and go for big gains, and there's a time to shoot for higher probabilities with smaller payout potentials.

I'm finding it hard to muster any conviction to go either long or short right now, as I can make compelling cases for both the bull and the bear thesis here.

In today's tape, my feeling is we need to err on the side of being too conservative and trade with a margin of safety.

So today, we're putting on what I feel to be a conservative, delta-neutral options trade in the technology sector ETF $XLK.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Robert E. Cauley, CEO of Orchid Island Capital $ORC.

Cauley reported an ORC purchase in the amount of $235,700.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I think the S&P 500 has potential to drop below its 200-day moving average and snap back.

I think we can have another push lower, and then we get relief.

This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

No reprieve from the selling today, an ugly one overall.

$SPY is nearing its 200-day moving average.

It might be a wild day tomorrow, too.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Sellers have a hold on equity markets as internal weakness expands and downside momentum picks up.

When looking for evidence of additional downside risk, some of the most valuable information we have is in the price action of the weakest areas. The rationale is that they should break down first and lead the rest of the market lower.

With how poorly the smallest stocks have performed this year, the Russell Microcap Index $IWC is the perfect signpost to help us determine the next move for stocks. 

The chart below shows IWC resolving to the downside from a descending triangle formation. It just closed at its lowest level in roughly three years.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by María Asunción Aramburuzabala, director of Coty Inc $COTY.

Aramburuzabala reported a COTY purchase with a total value of $5.4 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market keeps trying to hold these levels.

It would be a lot less painful if we had a quick swoosh lower.

We have a big night ahead of us. Are you ready?

This only happens 12 times each year, where we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks and data sets.

It's that time again!

Tonight at 6PM ET I'll be hosting our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

What do we need to own as we head into the final quarter of the year?

What do we need to avoid?

Here are the final numbers for Q3. Energy won and Utilities lost again!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 30, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity,...