Our Equal-Weight 33 Commodity Index is printing fresh two-year lows. Crude oil is hanging around the lower bounds of a multi-month consolidation. And Dr. Copper is loitering below former support.
This isn’t bull market behavior.
But just as the stock market is a market of stocks, the commodity market is a market of, well, a diverse set of commodities.
So, while I don’t want to buy many high-profile procyclical contracts – and certainly not the commodity indexes – I do like the more obscure areas showing strength…
Areas such as uranium!
I outlined my case for uranium stocks at the start of the year. It was pretty simple: If gold and copper are printing fresh highs, peripheral areas likely enjoy a bid. That includes uranium.
Perhaps copper hasn’t had the best first half, but gold and other precious metals...
It feels like whatever items have been holding the broader markets back are falling by the wayside one by one, clearing the path to the next leg higher in this bull market.
And with volatility (as measured by $VIX) making new yearly lows, it's getting more affordable to make a bullish play with simple long call option trades.
US interest rates have churned within a tight range for months.
Remember: Sideways is a trend.
While intermarket evidence suggests a breakdown in yields, they simply refuse to roll over.
It makes perfect sense when we zoom out…
Rates are in a well-defined structural uptrend!
Check out the US 30-year Treasury yield overlaid with live cattle futures:
They look almost identical as both exhibit the classic base-on-base formation – one upside resolution followed by another.
To be clear, I’m not proposing a grand thesis regarding a strong positive correlation between long-duration rates and live cattle futures, or what the next directional move in live cattle and rates mean for AI stocks (though I haven’t dismissed the idea).
Instead, I’m simply observing the trend that began in early 2020.
I chose to place live cattle futures on the chart for effect – a...