I recently came across a video on youtube from a very smart man – whom I respect and have had several favorable interactions with – that made me shake my head.
But before I throw any shade on any other professional colleague, let me be the first to say that I’m no genius. My shit stinks too, and I’m sure I’m equally guilty of throwing questionable ideas or thoughts out into the metaverse from time to time. I’m human, just like everyone else.
So here’s what got me rankled.
The video had a catchy title like: “How I made fourteen hundred dollars in one day trading 0-DTE options.”
Ok. I’m interested. I like to make that kinda money each trading day. Tell me more!
The short video went on to demonstrate how this trader sold a slightly out-of-the-money naked put in $SPX...
We held our April Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
The 30-, 10-, and 5-year contracts are trading above our risk levels. And the bond ETFs we covered a couple of weeks ago are also flashing buy signals.
The bond market is sending a well-advertised message to all investors…
It’s time to buy bonds.
Let's review one of the most liquid treasury ETFs, $TLT.
Zooming out on the weekly chart of the Treasury bond ETF TLT…
We have a potential failed breakdown below the former 2014 lows, followed by a tight, multi-month consolidation.
A clear break above 110 and the former 2018 lows turns our view higher toward 135.
On the other hand, a resolution below 100 carries downside risks back to the 2011 lows at approximately 88.
We kicked around a few ideas in this morning's Analyst meeting and the one thing that stood out to me is that I do not currently have any long exposure to the healthcare sector --- one of the strongest sectors out there.
That changes today.
We're going to get long a familiar name in the space, but we're going to do it carefully with a defined risk spread because we've got earnings coming up soon. So we'll go for a longer-duration trade and bet on earnings to be a catalyst for higher prices.