From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: Our asset allocation models are tilting away from commodities, so we sold GLD in our cyclical portfolio (and replaced it with mid-cap equity exposure). With tactical risks rising, we raised some cash in our tactical opportunity portfolio.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

As good as the market looked in January, it looked that bad in February. The month began with the technical conditions for the re-birth of a bull market being met, but by the end of the month there was still little evidence of bull market behavior. If the Q4 turn is going to prove resilient, it’s time for the bulls to step up and show that the path of least resistance is indeed higher. That means firmly embracing a rally that has faltered under the ongoing weight of macro concerns and is on the cusp of breaking down.

Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into March. 

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

Last night was our Live Conference Call that I host at the beginning of each Month.

It gives us an opportunity to take a step back and identify the direction of primary trends.

This is helpful, because without understanding the environment we're in, how could we possibly pick and choose which tools and strategies to incorporate?

This step often gets forgotten about by investors.

Many would rather just shove their strategy down the market's throat whether it makes sense for that environment or not.

I find that foolish.

One chart that I thought told an important story ...

The largest insider buy on today's list comes from DISH Network Corporation $DISH co-founder and executive vice-president, James DeFranco. 

DeFranco revealed a purchase of $15.7 million worth of DISH shares in his latest Form 4.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

So, the market had a little bit of a rug-pull yesterday.

I'd like $SPY to hold the 404 level, otherwise we run the risk down to 402.

This is the video recording of our March 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 3, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.

The bottom line is there are a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Don’t Ignore Coal

Our equal-weighted custom index of the largest coal stocks reached new highs last week. If this breakout sticks, coal is a group we want to keep leaning on for long exposure.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive, with 79% of our list closing higher with a median return of 1.55%.
• Oil $CL was the winner, closing with a 4.40% gain.
• The biggest loser was The Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -14.67%.
• There was a 9% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 15%.
• 4% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Nice pop this morning in the indices, then we dropped.

I was hoping for $SPY to close the gap at 408 before the sell-off, but that didn't happen.