Bitcoin is a market that we are very fond of here at Allstarcharts. You've heard me say it plenty: it's a beautiful case study for Technical Analysis.
It's not a company. There are no fundamentals.
And you guys have watched us analyze the behavior of Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies since early 2016.
It's been pretty amazing to watch and participate in a new market like this. They were telling us we were late to the party back then. They're still saying the same thing now.
My bet is crypto is here to stay. So who better to have a conversation with than Greg King, Founder & CEO of OSPREY Funds, the newest vehicle to give investors access to this market.
The latest Under the Hood Report is out, and as always, there are a number of good trade candidates. But the one that most caught my attention is a name that typically isn't on the radar of momentum buyers. When it's threatening new all time highs, we have to consider participating.
We are in the midst of a bull-run and the events over the last ten days or so have sprung up some doubts over the current move with regards to the repercussions of the rise in bond yield and the US dollar.
We included the US Dollar(DXY) chart in the Three Charts for the Week ahead post since DXY moved past its resistance in the week gone by. Let's take a look at how this had panned out in the past and what are the signals that we can identify in the present.
The chart below tracks DXY and Nifty 50 over the past 20 years. Note that we are looking at the subsequent move in Nifty 50, following the bottoming out of DXY. The dashed lines mark the reversals in DXY, which is what we're tracking here. Of the seven instances where we've seen the bottoming out of DXY, Nifty 50 has continued to rally on four such occasions.
On three occasions the negative correlation plays out as can be seen in the years 2000, 2008 & 2015.
Welcomeback to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ending March 5, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.
In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.
The bottom line is there are a million ways to skin this cat. Relying on our entire arsenal of data makes us...
Don't miss this weeks Momentum Report; our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector and Industry Group level. As a reminder, we analyze this shorter-term data within the context of the structural trends at play.
The Canadian economy is dominated by Financials and has a diverse and abundant exposure to natural resources. Despite the close proximity, the composition of the country's stock market couldn't be more different from that of the US.
They have a much higher relative exposure to areas like Financials, Energy, and Materials... Basically, all the things that are working.
On the other hand, they have significantly lower exposure to areas like Technology, Health Care, and Discretionary... Basically, all the areas that are NOT currently working.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
It was John Roque who taught me this so many years ago. At least a decade if I had to guess.
We're NOT in a reversion to the mean business. This is a reversion BEYOND the mean business.
In other words, assets don't just get back to what is "average". They tend to overshoot. And that's the norm, not the exception.
This mean reversion we've seen in energy could be just that, a reversion back to the average. But if I've learned anything over the years, these things tend to overshoot.
We've been very vocal about this Value rotation, of course. But coming into the weekend, the big question I pose to myself, my team, and the market for that matter, is this:
There's nothing like a good bubble popping to throw a wrench in everyone's plans.
The passive investor bubble popped. They're getting smoked and I think it only gets exponentially worse for them moving forward.
The U.S. home country bias is a bad one too. That one looks like it popped and about to get a whole lot worse for people who think the United States and The World are the same thing.
Bonds going up for 40 years? That's normal right? It's too early to call a generational turn. We can't make that call until 10s are holding above 3%. But it sure looks like that was it.
Meanwhile, the "Lack of Commodity Exposure" bubble is very apparent. I got in this business back in the day and was taught that there were 3 asset classes:...
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
When reviewing our chartbook this week, one major theme that stood out is the relentless bid we continue to see in Crude Oil.
Most risk-on commodities have consolidated or pulled back recently as the dollar has rebounded back to its highest level in over three months.
But, not oil...
Crude has completely ignored this action from the US Dollar and tacked on an additional 12% gain since DXY bottomed about two weeks ago.
Ever since trading at negative prices last spring, Crude has been on an absolute tear.
Price just broke above its key prior highs and closed the week at its highest level since 2018. As long as Crude is above this key former resistance around 65 the bias is higher and we're targeting the 2018 highs just above 75 over the near-term.
If and when price takes this level out, we think Crude Oil heads back toward 100.
That's right. The next stop after 75 would be the 2011-2014 highs in the low...