From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Rising rates have been a worldwide phenomenon for the last two and a half years as yields have climbed non-stop.

Not only are we seeing the curve in the US reach decade-long highs, but the benchmark yields in Germany, France, Spain, and even Japan are also trading at multi-year highs.

Below is the US 10-year Yield reaching its highest level since 2007 after breaking out of a multi-month base three weeks ago.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices had somewhat of a tiny relief bounce.

But it wasn't really much to speak of...

There's a time to be aggressive and go for big gains, and there's a time to shoot for higher probabilities with smaller payout potentials.

I'm finding it hard to muster any conviction to go either long or short right now, as I can make compelling cases for both the bull and the bear thesis here.

In today's tape, my feeling is we need to err on the side of being too conservative and trade with a margin of safety.

So today, we're putting on what I feel to be a conservative, delta-neutral options trade in the technology sector ETF $XLK.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Robert E. Cauley, CEO of Orchid Island Capital $ORC.

Cauley reported an ORC purchase in the amount of $235,700.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I think the S&P 500 has potential to drop below its 200-day moving average and snap back.

I think we can have another push lower, and then we get relief.

This is the video recording of our October 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

No reprieve from the selling today, an ugly one overall.

$SPY is nearing its 200-day moving average.

It might be a wild day tomorrow, too.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Sellers have a hold on equity markets as internal weakness expands and downside momentum picks up.

When looking for evidence of additional downside risk, some of the most valuable information we have is in the price action of the weakest areas. The rationale is that they should break down first and lead the rest of the market lower.

With how poorly the smallest stocks have performed this year, the Russell Microcap Index $IWC is the perfect signpost to help us determine the next move for stocks. 

The chart below shows IWC resolving to the downside from a descending triangle formation. It just closed at its lowest level in roughly three years.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by María Asunción Aramburuzabala, director of Coty Inc $COTY.

Aramburuzabala reported a COTY purchase with a total value of $5.4 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market keeps trying to hold these levels.

It would be a lot less painful if we had a quick swoosh lower.