If this blog post was served up to you when you were searching for the latest scare porn on the omicron covid pandemic, I'm sorry to disappoint. But if you'd like to draw a correlation between the rising omicron cases and rising share prices of Micron technology stock --- you wouldn't be the first person to commit a #ChartCrime in service of a good story.
Micron Technology $MU is a stock that's been on my radar since the team published the Under the Hood report around Christmas highlighting the setup.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The rally in the US Dollar Index $DXY is stalling out.
With each passing day, dollar internals are weakening, and the prospect of a bullish resolution from the current continuation pattern in DXY is diminishing. We expect these patterns to resolve quickly. And when they don’t, that’s information.
The bottom line is evidence continues to stack against the USD.
With that as our backdrop, let’s check in on a long USD trade that was triggered in November and outline how we want to navigate the coming days and weeks.
Toward the end of the year, we covered a couple of key levels that the dollar needed to clear to increase our conviction in its current...
This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.
Until now, the answer to the Growth vs Value question has depended on what type of market cap conversation you're having.
Through the end of 2021 Large-cap Growth was still a leader. It was the Small-cap Growth stocks that had been crushed most of the year, particularly when compared to the performance of Small-cap Value.
You can see the new 52-week lows in IWO / IWN coming into 2022:
In yesterday's note, we pointed to the growing leverage in derivative markets, explaining that we anticipate it unwinding in coming weeks.
Since we published it, we've seen an aggressive "sell" wall placed on FTX, the world's third-largest derivatives exchange by open value.
This caused Bitcoin to sell off and created a clear zone of supply.
On the other hand, Bitfinex, one of the most prominent spot exchanges, has a monster "buy" wall placed just under current market prices.
FTX and Bitfinex are experiencing significant order book activity, and there are now monster walls placed on either side of market prices.
Additionally, we've seen yet another uptick in open interest to all-time highs in a context where price stability is at a local peak and Deribit implied volatility is progressing down to its lowest value since April....
We’ve already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…
For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
The way we’re doing this is simple…
To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B. And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component–it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe...
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolateonlythose options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one...
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Continuation Patterns And Primary Uptrends
As we enter the new year, let’s take a step back and discuss where we’ve come from. The following chart is an excellent illustration of the price action for risk assets in 2021. As you can see, both stocks and commodities went through a corrective phase for much of the year and remain stuck in their ranges as we head into 2022. Markets can't go sideways forever, so we expect resolutions sooner rather than later. And because the vast majority of these consolidations are simply continuation patterns within the context of primary uptrends, we’re expecting upside resolutions. The question simply remains “when?”