Strap in. When Jeff Macke is driving the conversation, you need to pay attention. The wisdom, wit, and one-liners fly by fast.
While other seven-year-olds spent their weekends playing with Lincoln Logs and Wiffle Ball, Jeff was riding around town in a station wagon with his dad, visiting Target stores. He wasn’t just tagging along—he was analyzing end-caps, product presentations, and the cleanliness of the floors and staff.
Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.
This week, I'm hunting for bottoms. There are 5 stocks that have my attention. I'm under no qualms about the fact that we could be in for more downside, but I'm officially in "tactical buy" mode. Any time you get a washout like we've gotten, you have to be willing to put money to work in strongly-held convictions.
I've got a few on my list, and I discussed them in my weekly video.
Ending a correction is a process. Hoping for a capitulation Crash is natural but a bit of a sucker's game and sort of misses the point. Getting into a crash is the same process only bigger. It's like ranking tornados; some or big, some less so but the sequence is always the same.
A Unquantifiably large negative confluence of negative catalysts starts to form. Uncertainty is bad but most people buy the dip. But then the news gets worse. And relentless. The selling builds steam as consumers and businesses start missing/ guiding lower. Indices fall (>10% or it doesn't count) but the damage is way, way worse under the surface. There is no place to hide.
[Emotionally the short version is 1. "Buying the dip, thanks for the free money, Market". 2. "I'm still up huge and can ride this out" 3. "I should have taken some profits" 4. "It's that idiot's fault I'm losing money and I hate Bankers/ Traders / Shorts and this is all a scam" 5. "Capitalism has failed. I'm selling and living in an RV"]
Then we bottom.
We've checked a lot of the required boxes for a bottom to at least get started at this point. The market is still wobbly but the brutal, indiscriminate...
Busy morning of earnings with a little something for everyone as we try to figure out who, if anyone, is actually experiencing a recession as opposed to just talking about it all the time.
This morning saw a decent report from the dominant player in the dismal wedding-focused jewelry space in Signet, deep-discount treasure hunt chain Ollies and the magnificent Williams-Sonoma, stuck in the middle of a rare sell-off.
Let's grade them!
Report Card Rules:
All grades are subjective and relative to each company's reputation, messaging and likely appeal to Wall Street.
I don't much care about Q4. Does anything seem longer ago right now than last Christmas? Q1 reports in retail are all about setting expectations for the next year, establishing clear deliverables and highlighting any tailwinds or concerns.
TLDR: These stocks are all way off fairly recent highs. Anything better than whining about troubling economic headwinds and guiding to something hugely negative is a Beat at this point.
Let's start in the Mall!
Signet: B+
Signet slightly beat the guidance issued in January but missed the original Q4 guidance...
