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Bitcoin & Ethereum New 52-week Highs

July 4, 2023

More and more "things" keep making new highs.

This is the sort of thing that happens in bull markets.

You can see Ethereum and Bitcoin both finding support the past year near former resistance levels from the highs in its prior cycle at the end of 2017:

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Follow the Flow (07-03-2023)

July 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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The Minor Leaguers (07-03-2023)

July 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

1H 2023 In the Books. Now What?

July 2, 2023

As investors, the first step in deciding whether to buy something or not is to identify the direction in which price is heading.

So many investors out there choose to skip this step.

I never understood that.

We know for a fact that asset prices trend. We know. We all have the data. It's just a fact.

So if we know that, then why wouldn't we begin our process by identifying which direction price is heading?

"Should we buy this stock?"

Well, is it going up in price? Down? Or sideways?

Trend recognition is also really helpful in identifying the type of market environment we're in.

"Are the majority of stocks going up? Down? Or sideways?"

At the end of every month we get a ...

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[Premium] Details For July 2023 Monthly Strategy Session

July 2, 2023

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Wednesday July 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Wednesday evening:

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The Hall of Famers (06-30-2023)

June 30, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...

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It’s a Little Corn-y

June 30, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The most important crop report of the year has hit.

Yes, it’s generated quite the buzz over the past few weeks, as grain markets ripped higher in anticipation.

Some observers even speculated that Friday’s report was the most important in the history of the agrarian economy.

So let’s round down, be conservative, and call it the most important crop report in 5,000 years.

Seriously, though, it was a big deal, as acreage estimates for soybeans represent the largest miss since the report's inception – or, like, ever, in history. 

More importantly for traders and investors, the report brought increased volatility.

If you’re like me and prefer to sit out these kinds of days, you’re patiently waiting for the dust to settle. 

Meanwhile, if you’re at all put off by the volatility of these futures contracts, I have a vehicle that promises a much smoother ride…

Let’s talk about Archer Daniels Midland $ADM, “supermarket to the world.”

The $41B commodity behemoth has more than 100 years of experience in the grain markets.

And, as JC pointed out on...

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Real Yields Challenge New Highs

June 29, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Messy, messy, messy.

If there’s one market description I’ve grown tired of more than others – it’s "messy." It’s my pain trade. 

Interest rates, the US dollar, crude oil, gold – you name it! – all are trendless and range-bound.

One of our viewers during yesterday’s live What the FICC? episode offered up an alternative description: ambiguous. I like it!

But there’s one area of the fixed-income, commodity, and currency landscape poised to break free from this ambiguity…

US real yields!

Check out the US five-year real yield challenging a shelf of former highs:

Yes, we’re talking about yields. But I see a potential bullish continuation pattern. 

Remember, we like buying...

More Rotation Is Coming

June 29, 2023

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.

We saw it at the beginning of the year as the laggards caught up to the leaders.

Remember, in the back half of last year, almost everything was working, EXCEPT large-cap growth stocks.

What are the best performers this year? Large-cap growth stocks.

More recently, we've seen rotation into Small-caps and Industrial stocks that were the underperformers in the early part of 2023.

This is perfectly normal behavior for bull markets.

In bear markets you see the opposite. In bear markets, the leaders tend to catch down to the laggards.

This is definitely not that.

So what's the bet?

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The Short Report (06-28-2023)

June 29, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

[Options] Kings of the Draft

June 28, 2023

[11/16: stop updated to 32]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

We've been witness to many charts, that look like today's setup, breaking out and turning into big winners in recent months. And with very few signs of this current bull market running out of steam, we think there will be many more repeats of these profitable patterns in the weeks and months ahead.

And cheap options premiums continue to make it advantageous to play these moves simply with long calls.

Strazza has been pounding the table on DraftKings for a couple weeks now and today's trading action has me convinced that the time is right to get involved.

First, the chart: