All Star Charts Gold Rush Articles

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold mining stocks are the play.

Why?

Because they’re working!

In a market overrun with whipsaws and failed moves, our gold mining trades are holding their breakouts and reaching our initial targets. Not many market areas can make that claim.

And when you consider they’re outperforming the S&P 500 and the physical metals, it’s hard not to like these names.

Especially as gold and silver run into logical levels of resistance…

Gold is knocking on the door of all-time highs after gaining 13% over the trailing five weeks:

A pause at current levels makes sense – and is likely underway, as a bearish momentum divergence indicates waning strength.

That doesn’t change my bullish outlook for gold. Rather, my view simply turns neutral over the near term. 

It’s the same story for silver.

Gold’s crazy cousin is running into a logical level of overhead supply at approximately 26.

In 2020, we wanted to feed the ducks at 26, as it marked a key retracement level and a shelf of former lows. 

And here we are again, almost three...

We have Phillip Streible on the show today.

I'm a big fan of Phil's work. He's the Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures and a market veteran with more than 20 years of experience trading futures and forex.

Today, Phil shares with us his technical perspective on precious metals and discusses key fundamental drivers at play right now.

Check it out:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The pieces of the puzzle are falling into place. 

Gold priced in USD has finally joined other global currencies, closing last week at an all-time high. Silver, the high-beta play, is outperforming its more reserved cousin (gold). And gold mining stocks are breaking out.

Many of our trade ideas over the past few weeks are working. I believe this trend has just begun and could last for months – or even quarters.

Especially when I consider this next chart…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The pieces of the puzzle are falling into place. 

Gold priced in USD has finally joined other global currencies, closing last week at an all-time high. Silver, the high-beta play, is outperforming its more reserved cousin (gold). And gold mining stocks are breaking out.

Many of our trade ideas over the past few weeks are working. I believe this trend has just begun and could last for months – or even quarters.

Especially when I consider this next chart…

Check out the VanEck Gold Miners ETF $GDX filling the first of a series of downside gaps:

These gaps represent strong selling pressure during the early stages of last year’s sell-off when the bears were in full control. But in the interim, GDX carved out a multi-month base, repairing the damage. 

Now that the gold bugs have filled the first gap, I’m focusing on the 37 level. A decisive break above that level signifies a close of the breakaway gap that kicked off last year’s downtrend. 

It also coincides with fresh 52-week highs for GDX, lending credence to the bearish-to-bullish trend reversal underway –...

Gold finished the month within ten dollars of a new all-time high on a monthly closing basis.

It's an impressive feat by any standards, but even more so considering March is the weakest month of the year from a seasonal perspective.

With Gold futures bucking seasonal weakness and Silver futures and mining stocks bid, investors are sending a clear message to gold bugs everywhere...

It's time to party!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I thought March was supposed to be a seasonally weak period for gold.

I guess I was wrong.

Instead of rolling over, gold almost posted double-digit returns last month, while the higher beta plays (silver futures and mining stocks) soared.

As you might expect, many of the bullish trade ideas I laid out last month are working.

And, today, I have two new setups for you to check out…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I thought March was supposed to be a seasonally weak period for gold.

I guess I was wrong.

Instead of rolling over, gold almost posted double-digit returns last month, while the higher beta plays (silver futures and mining stocks) soared.

As you might expect, many of the bullish trade ideas I laid out last month are working.

And, today, I have two new setups for you to check out…

Before I get to the trades, check out the closing prices on this gold monthly candlestick chart:

I use monthly charts to reconnect with the underlying trend after weeks of following daily price swings. 

It’s easily one of my best practices. But it’s not all about the structural trend.

The monthly close carries weight, much like the weekly and daily closes. It marks the end of a time series and an agreement between buyers and sellers.

Notice support came in at its former 2011 monthly closing high at approximately 1,830 – an excellent example of the principle of polarity. 

Gold also finished the month within ten dollars of a new all-time high. So close!

Regardless of the...

Fresh two-year highs for the Gold/SPX ratio stand out this week, as gold outperforms its alternatives. It doesn't get much more bullish than fresh absolute and relative highs.

With that as our backdrop, I had Jason Perz @JasonP138 of Against All Odds Research on the show to share his view of the precious metals space.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Money flows to where it’s treated best.

That’s the foundational premise of relative strength studies. 

Remember, we always want to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. It sounds simple. But it’s impossible to overstate its importance.

One of the best ways to increase our probability of success is to buy assets that are trending higher on absolute terms while outperforming their alternatives.

Those are key ingredients of a strong uptrend. And it just so happens that gold checks both boxes…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Money flows to where it’s treated best.

That’s the foundational premise of relative strength studies. 

Remember, we always want to buy the strongest and sell the weakest. It sounds simple. But it’s impossible to overstate its importance.

One of the best ways to increase our probability of success is to buy assets that are trending higher on absolute terms while outperforming their alternatives.

Those are key ingredients of a strong uptrend. And it just so happens that gold checks both boxes…

Here’s a chart of gold futures posting fresh two-year highs versus the S&P 500 index:

The message comes through loud and clear: Rocks over stocks!

Silver is back above a crucial support level, and gold is reclaiming its former 2011 highs.

The precious metals space is starting to get spicy!

I imagine these rocks and their associated stocks will turn up the heat once the miners break out relative to the broader market.

Check out the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

For now, the GDX/SPY ratio continues to find support marked by a...

Buyers taking control of a market heading into the weekend exude confidence. And Gold bugs have done it two weeks in a row now and counting, as they reclaimed the former 2011 highs.

So what’s next for precious metals?

Well, if Gold priced in other major currencies is any indication (which I think it is), it looks like new all-time highs.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious Metals are back on track, with Gold leading the way.

Gold bugs closed out last week with another strong showing, absorbing overhead supply at a critical level – the former 2011 highs.

With momentum on their side, let’s see how precious metal bulls are faring in other areas of the world.