Heading into last week I shifted my short-term bias (weeks) from neutral to bullish.
This worked out rather nicely, with the S&P 500 closing every day in the green and crypto markets getting some relief from this recent selling.
I have flipped back my short-term bias (weeks) back to neutral with stocks pressing up to the highs. This fits into my intermediate bullish bias (months) as the market appears reserved heading into the election.
My longer-term bias (quarters) is still unequivocally bullish.
I've anticipated sideways price action for a month.
This continues as my intermediate outlook (months) has shifted from bullish to neutral as Bitcoin lost $56,000 and stocks appear as if they need time to improve.
My short-term outlook (weeks) moves from neutral to bullish, with Bitcoin and Ethereum at their lows and negative funding set us up for a bounce. I remain long on tokens like HNT, SOL, and BLUR holding support, but await further market shape before becoming overly bullish.
Recently, I've flipped to a higher conviction bullish view. I'm of the belief this last leg lower purged a great deal of longs from the futures market, of which provides us fertile grounds to build a new trend.
In the short-term, I still think the crypto market will be messier for longer even as Bitcoin rallies to new highs.
Ethereum and the S&P 500 are both running up to a logical level of resistance.
The primary theme in crypto is that we have just undergone a significant rinse in bullish positioning. This is positive to see.
Although, the market does tend to take some time to shape up following this deleveraging events. We want to play crypto patiently and keeping our trading exposure light in the short-term by focusing on any relative leadership until some shape has been put in.
Equity market strength gives me further conviction to anticipate the resolution will be higher once this shaping period has completed, hence why I have increased our intermediate term bias to bullish while keeping our short-term bias at neutral.
I think the evidence points to a low of sizeable magnitude having been put in, but now the expectation is sideways price action as we enter into a shaping period.
Last week saw an incredible amount of investor panic.
Often, you want to take the other side of this emotion. But before we do this with any conviction, we need to see market trends shape up in more bullish fashion.
We entered Bitcoin long on bear's inability to hold the breakdown below 56,000 and Ethereum's retest of 2,000. But apart from this, I'm still maintaining a neutral short and intermediate term directional bias in the crypto markets. I would like to see prices shape up more definitively, which can take some time following corrections such as these.
Crypto volatility has surged once again, and it's understandable if you're feeling stressed from this recent move.
If you’re holding crypto assets, you might be experiencing a significant drawdown. This volatility is a natural part of the investment journey in this asset class. It's to be expected you'll weather these drawdowns in crypto.
During turbulent times like these, it’s crucial to recognize that heightened emotions can cloud judgment. While it’s perfectly normal to feel stressed during a downturn, it’s important to be aware of how these emotions can impact your decision-making.
Amidst the noise and speculation, our goal today is to provide clarity.
In this report, we’ll contextualize the recent sell-off with historical data and outline a data-driven strategy to navigate the current landscape. By focusing on objective analysis, we aim to help you make informed decisions and maintain a steady course guided by data, not emotion.
Investors are preparing themselves for the launch of a second wave of crypto ETFs. With Ethereum up over 25% in recent weeks, it's clear the market has positive expectations for these new products.
Last week I maintained my bullish directional biases even in the face of another down leg in crypto markets. Today, we're monitoring an increasing number of failed breakdowns, meaning that bulls are once again asserting control of the tape.