This time last week, I was arguing a reset had taken place and with Bitcoin testing support, it was a logical place to see buyers step in. As of the writing of this letter, Bitcoin is making new three month lows.
Following this, I want to see a few scenarios play out before entering back into longs with any conviction.
Altcoins are being slaughtered; I keep pointing to the tendency for such topping patterns to fail in the context of bull markets. But again, I need to see the market prove this thesis before acting on it.
There is also a significant divergence brewing between macro and crypto markets.
Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.
I've been maintaining a neutral short-term bias for the last five weeks, which has helped us keep away from much of the precarious action over this period. But I'm seeing mounting signs that point to a tradable low being carved, and as such, I'm changing our short-term bias from neutral to bullish.
Bitcoin is finding support at a key level alongside many altcoins. Further, this is within the context of a wider reset in a longer-term bull market.
I keep coming back to the fact that we've just experienced a reset in the context of a bull market.
The primary uptrends are still higher.
So when I see coins consolidating and retesting support in the context of bull markets, I'm viewing that as a buying opportunity.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are a number of coins that have broken down to new lows. But it wouldn't surprise me to see these catch higher in the coming weeks, putting in the classic 'not a top' pattern we've seen so much in this bull market.
Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.
There's plenty of bearish action taking place in the crypto market. Many coins are breaking down and the technicals are carving out topping patterns.
But in the face of this weakness, I emphasize we're still in a longer-term bull market and selloffs like these have been favorable buying opportunities for traders.
Heading into last week we were mindful of the compression in volatility which meant an increased likelihood for larger price swings. Further, we were being patient given a number of our data sets were pointing to mixed signs.
We've seen selling continue, particularly ramping up this morning.
I'm maintaining my neutral short-term bias. My data sets are mixed, with some indicators pointing in bullish territory while others skew bearish.
Volatility has contracted to extreme levels. Given volatility's mean-reverting nature, we're likely going to experience an expansion in volatility in the short-term.
I'm being patient and letting the weight of the evidence tip me to a more bullish stance.